A comparative time series analysis and modeling of aerosols in the contiguous United States and China

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.072

	A comparative time series analysis and modeling of aerosols in the contiguous United States and China
	Li, Xueke 1; Zhang, Chuanrong 1; Zhang, Bo 1; Liu, Kai 2
刊名	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
	2019-11-10
卷号	690 页码:799-811
关键词	Aerosol variation Trend Time series modeling Prediction Inter-country comparisons
ISSN号	0048-9697
DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.072
通讯作者	Li, Xueke(xueke.li@uconn.edu)
英文摘要	Long-term trend analysis and modeling of aerosol distribution is of paramount importance to study radiative forcing, climate change, and human health. Previous studies on spatiotemporal trend analysis have not fully considered the impact of spatial and temporal gaps of satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) on precise aerosol characterization. In addition, very few studies analyzed inter-country aerosol variations, trends, driving forces, and predictions at the regional level, which is important to draw lessons from the experiences of one another. This study is focused on comparative time series analyses and modeling of aerosols over the contiguous United States (US.) and China during 2003-2015 using MODIS Collection 6 retrievals. An econometric model, namely autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), is employed to reproduce and predict AOD variability over U.S. and China. Results show that high AOD values are observed in the eastern part of US. and China. Temporal variations indicate that AODs reach their peak values in summer for both countries. A sustained negative AOD trend is present throughout the U.S. while a distinct spatial variation of AOD trend is exhibited in China. The large differences in variations and trends are closely linked to the energy strategies, economic and urban development, and lifestyle activities of these two countries. Time series modeling reveals that reasonably good performances are found in most parts of these two countries. In particular, the model replicates AOD time series that has clear seasonal variations with much more accuracy. The results suggest that areas most suitable for applying the model for prediction are those with high AOD quality, high completeness of AOD data, and low-AOD values. Overall, the satisfactory predicted results indicate the applicability and feasibility of the ARIMA modeling technique for accurately extracting AOD profiles, predicting future AOD values as well as extrapolating missed AOD values at the regional scale. The retrieved and predicted AOD values may serve as reliable estimates for air quality and epidemiological studies. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
WOS关键词	OPTICAL DEPTH ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; AIR-POLLUTION ; SATELLITE ; MODIS ; TRENDS ; AERONET ; DUST ; EMISSIONS ; IMPACTS
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER
WOS记录号	WOS:000482549900075
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/69593]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Li, Xueke
作者单位	1.Univ Connecticut, Dept Geog, Storrs, CT 06269 USA 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Xueke,Zhang, Chuanrong,Zhang, Bo,et al. A comparative time series analysis and modeling of aerosols in the contiguous United States and China[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2019,690:799-811.
APA	Li, Xueke,Zhang, Chuanrong,Zhang, Bo,&Liu, Kai.(2019).A comparative time series analysis and modeling of aerosols in the contiguous United States and China.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,690,799-811.
MLA	Li, Xueke,et al."A comparative time series analysis and modeling of aerosols in the contiguous United States and China".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 690(2019):799-811.