Spatial and temporal variability of annual and seasonal precipitation over the desert region of China during 1951-2005

CORC > 新疆生态与地理研究所 > 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 > 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所(2010年以前数据)

	Spatial and temporal variability of annual and seasonal precipitation over the desert region of China during 1951-2005
	Xu, Ligang ; Zhou, Hongfei ; Liang, Chuan ; Du, Li ; Li, Hui
刊名	HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES
	2010
卷号	24 期号:20 页码:2947-2959
关键词	NORTHWEST CHINA NORTHERN CHINA RIVER-BASIN RAINFALL TRENDS TIME-SERIES MODEL EXTREMES DISAGGREGATION HOMOGENEITY STREAMFLOW
ISSN号	0885-6087
通讯作者	Zhou, HF, Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, Fukang Stn Desert Ecol, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, Peoples R China
中文摘要	The spatial and temporal variations of precipitation in the desert region of China (DRC) from 1951 to 2005 were investigated using a rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF), the precipitation concentration index (PCI) and the Mann-Kendall trend test method (M-K method). In addition, the association between variation patterns of precipitation and large-scale circulation were also explored using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data. The results indicated that the spatial pattern of precipitation was primarily the local climate effect significant type, with the first three EOFs explaining a total of 55.3% of the variance, and the large-scale climate system effect type, which explained 9.8% of the variance. Prior to the 1970s, the East Asian summer monsoon was stronger, which resulted in abundant precipitation in the Inner Mongolia region. Conversely, the climate of the Xinjiang region was controlled by westerly circulation and had lower precipitation. However, this situation has been reversed since the 1980s. It is predicted that precipitation will decrease by 15-40 and 0-10 mm/year in the Inner Mongolia plateau and southern Xinjiang, respectively, whereas it will likely increase by 10-40 mm/year in northern Xinjiang. Additionally, 58-62% of the annual rainfall occurred during summer in the DRC, with precipitation increasing during spring and summer and decreasing in winter. The intra-annual precipitation is becoming uniform, but the inter-annual variability in precipitation has been increasing in the western portions of the DRC. The probability of precipitation during the study period increased by 30% and 22.2% in the extreme-arid zones and arid zones, respectively. Conversely, the probability of precipitation during the study period decreased by 18.5% and 37.5% in the semi-arid zones and semi-wet zones, respectively. It is predicted that the northwest portion of the DRC will become warmer and wetter, while the central portion will become warmer and drier and the northeast portion will be subjected to drought. Copyright (c) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
学科主题	水文地理学及水资源
收录类别	SCI
公开日期	2011-08-19
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/9892]
专题	新疆生态与地理研究所_中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所(2010年以前数据)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xu, Ligang,Zhou, Hongfei,Liang, Chuan,et al. Spatial and temporal variability of annual and seasonal precipitation over the desert region of China during 1951-2005[J]. HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES,2010,24(20):2947-2959.
APA	Xu, Ligang,Zhou, Hongfei,Liang, Chuan,Du, Li,&Li, Hui.(2010).Spatial and temporal variability of annual and seasonal precipitation over the desert region of China during 1951-2005.HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES,24(20),2947-2959.
MLA	Xu, Ligang,et al."Spatial and temporal variability of annual and seasonal precipitation over the desert region of China during 1951-2005".HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES 24.20(2010):2947-2959.