A spatial-temporal stochastic simulation of fire outbreaks following earthquake based on GIS

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	A spatial-temporal stochastic simulation of fire outbreaks following earthquake based on GIS
	Zhao S. J. ; Xiong L. Y. ; Ren A. Z.
	2006
关键词	Earthquake effects Geographic information systems Mathematical models Regression analysis Seismology Weibull distribution
英文摘要	Post-earthquake fire is a dangerous secondary disaster following an earthquake, which causes severe life losses and property destruction. Similar to other natural disasters, fire outbreak following an earthquake carries its own spatial and temporal characters. In order to explore these characters, we analyzed in detail the fires caused by the Hanshin earthquake in Japan (1995). We identified the key spatial-temporal characters of the fire outbreak following an earthquake. Using this analysis methodology, we further collected and organized the records of post-earthquake fires that have occurred in the 20th century in USA, Japan, and China, and modeled fire outbreaks following an earthquake by employing a regression analysis method. Considering the stochastic characters of post-earthquake fires, we proposed a random Poisson event and Weibull distribution model in constructing the spatial-temporal probability distribution of fire outbreaks following an earthquake in urban districts. In addition, we propose a geographical information system (GIS) based stochastic simulation schema to predict the spatial-temporal process of fire outbreaks following future earthquakes. Finally, we applied our models to simulate the fire outbreaks in Xiamen city after an assumed earthquake of a similar magnitude as the Hanshin earthquake. Our simulation result not only exhibits the spatial-temporal characters of fire outbreaks following an earthquake, but also supplies valuable decision-making information to the planning of Xiamen city's seismic prevention and mitigation. © 2006 SAGE Publication.
出处	Journal of Fire Sciences
卷	24 期:4 页:313-339
收录类别	EI
语种	英语
内容类型	EI期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/24356]
专题	地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhao S. J.,Xiong L. Y.,Ren A. Z.. A spatial-temporal stochastic simulation of fire outbreaks following earthquake based on GIS. 2006.