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	Research on runoff forecast approaches to the Aksu River basin
	Luyang R. L. ; Cheng W. M. ; Wang W. S. ; Jiang Y. ; Zhang Y. C. ; Wang Y. Q.
	2007
关键词	the Aksu River ungauged basins daily runoff forecast model
英文摘要	The Aksu River (the international river between China and Kirghiz) has become the main water source for the Tarim River. It significantly influences the Tarim River's formation, development and evolution. Along with the western region development strategy and the Tarim River basin comprehensive development and implementation, the research is now focused on the Aksu River basin hydrologic characteristic and hydrologic forecast. Moreover, the Aksu River is representative of rivers supplied with glacier and snow melt in middle-high altitude arid district. As a result, the research on predicting the river flow of the Aksu River basin has theoretical and practical significance. In this paper, considering the limited hydrometeorological data for the Aksu River basin, we have constructed four hydrologic forecast approaches using the daily scale to simulate and forecast daily runoff of two big branches of the Aksu River basin. The four approaches are the upper air temperature and the daily runoff correlation method, AR(p) runoff forecast model, temperature and precipitation revised AR(p) model and the NAM rainfall-runoff model. After comparatively analyzing the simulation results of the four approaches, we discovered that the temperature and precipitation revised AR(p) model, which needs less hydrological and meteorological data and is more predictive, is suitable for the short-term runoff forecast of the Aksu River basin. This research not only offers a foundation for the Aksu River and Tarim Rivers' hydrologic forecast, flood prevention, control and the entire basin water collocation, but also provides the hydrologic forecast reference approach for other arid ungauged basins.
出处	Science in China Series D-Earth Sciences
卷	50
页	16-25
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
ISSN号	1006-9313
内容类型	SCI/SSCI论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/23313]
专题	地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Luyang R. L.,Cheng W. M.,Wang W. S.,et al. Research on runoff forecast approaches to the Aksu River basin. 2007.

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