Projected Freshening of the Arctic Ocean in the 21st Century

doi:10.1029/2018JC014036

CORC > 自然资源部第一海洋研究所 > 自然资源部第一海洋研究所 > 业务部门 > 海洋环境与数值模拟研究室

	Projected Freshening of the Arctic Ocean in the 21st Century
	Shu, Qi 1,2,3; Qiao, Fangli 1,2,3; Song, Zhenya 1,2,3; Zhao, Jiechen 4; Li, Xinfang 1
刊名	JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
	2018-12
卷号	123 期号:12 页码:9232-9244
ISSN号	2169-9275
DOI	10.1029/2018JC014036
英文摘要	Using state-of-the-art models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), this study found the upper Arctic Ocean likely to freshen considerably in the future. Arctic Ocean average sea surface salinity is projected to decrease by 1.51.1psu, and the liquid freshwater column is projected to increase by 5.43.8m by the end of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. Most freshening would occur in the Arctic Ocean basins, that is, the Canada, Makarov, and Amundsen basins. Anomalies in freshwater flux from sea ice melt, Bering Strait inflow, net precipitation (P-E), river runoff, and freshwater through the Barents Sea Opening (BSO) would contribute to Arctic Ocean freshening. CMIP5 historical and RCP8.5 experiments showed that the respective projected contributions from BSO freshwater flux, river runoff, P-E, and Bering Strait inflow are about 6.4, 5.0, 2.7, and 2.2 times the contribution from sea ice melt averaged throughout the 21st century. Contributions from sea ice melt and Bering Strait inflow would increase and then decrease gradually, while those from BSO freshwater flux, river runoff, and P-E would increase continuously. The CMIP5 models are able to simulate the Arctic Ocean freshwater system more accurately than CMIP3 models. However, the simulated rate of increase of freshwater content (296232km(3)/yr) is weaker than estimated (600300km(3)/yr) based on observations (1992-2012). Moreover, the simulated BSO and Davis Strait freshwater fluxes still exhibit substantial intermodel spread and they differ considerably from observed values.
资助项目	AoShan Talents Cultivation Excellent Scholar Program - Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology[2017ASTCP-ES04]
WOS研究方向	Oceanography
语种	英语
出版者	AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
WOS记录号	WOS:000456405900032
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.fio.com.cn:8080/handle/2SI8HI0U/10913]
专题	业务部门_海洋环境与数值模拟研究室
通讯作者	Qiao, Fangli
作者单位	1.Minist Nat Resources, Inst Oceanog 1, Qingdao, Peoples R China 2.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Lab Reg Oceanog & Numer Modeling, Qingdao, Peoples R China 3.Minist Nat Resources, Key Lab Marine Sci & Numer Modeling, Qingdao, Peoples R China 4.Natl Marine Environm Forecasting Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shu, Qi,Qiao, Fangli,Song, Zhenya,et al. Projected Freshening of the Arctic Ocean in the 21st Century[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS,2018,123(12):9232-9244.
APA	Shu, Qi,Qiao, Fangli,Song, Zhenya,Zhao, Jiechen,&Li, Xinfang.(2018).Projected Freshening of the Arctic Ocean in the 21st Century.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS,123(12),9232-9244.
MLA	Shu, Qi,et al."Projected Freshening of the Arctic Ocean in the 21st Century".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS 123.12(2018):9232-9244.