Assessing the gains and vulnerability of free trade: A counterfactual analysis of Macau

doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2017.10.019

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	Assessing the gains and vulnerability of free trade: A counterfactual analysis of Macau
	Yin, Hua 1; Du, Zaichao 2; Zhang, Lin 3
刊名	ECONOMIC MODELLING
	2018-04
卷号	70 页码:147-158
关键词	Free trade agreement Vulnerability Program evaluation Counterfactual Macau
ISSN号	0264-9993
DOI	10.1016/j.econmod.2017.10.019
英文摘要	Free trade can generate macroeconomic gains but also vulnerability to external shocks for a highly-specialized economy. To test this hypothesis, we evaluate the effects of Mainland-Macau Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) on Macau's real GDP growth rate and its volatility, as well as the costs of exposure to the anti-corruption campaign from mainland China using a counterfactual analysis. Counterfactuals of Macau are constructed by exploiting the inter-dependence among different economic entities and the optimal control group is selected with a leave-n,-out cross-validation method. Our results support the hypothesis. CEPA raised the annual real GDP growth rate of Macau by 20.76% from 2004 to 2007, meanwhile it increased the volatility of real GDP growth rate by 35%, and the anti-corruption campaign reduced the annual real GDP growth rate by 17.54% from 2013 to 2016. Our findings imply that free trade could be a double-edged sword for a small and highly specialized economy and the gains of free trade can be enlarged by reducing its vulnerability.
WOS研究方向	Business & Economics
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
WOS记录号	WOS:000429891200013
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://10.2.47.112/handle/2XS4QKH4/648]
专题	上海财经大学
通讯作者	Zhang, Lin
作者单位	1.Shanghai Univ Finance & Econ, Sch Shanghai Dev, 777 Guoding Rd, Shanghai 200433, Peoples R China; 2.Southwestern Univ Finance & Econ, Res Inst Econ & Management, 555 Liutai Ave, Chengdu 611130, Sichuan, Peoples R China; 3.Canada Mortgage & Housing Corp, 700 Montreal Rd, Montreal, ON K1A 0P7, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yin, Hua,Du, Zaichao,Zhang, Lin. Assessing the gains and vulnerability of free trade: A counterfactual analysis of Macau[J]. ECONOMIC MODELLING,2018,70:147-158.
APA	Yin, Hua,Du, Zaichao,&Zhang, Lin.(2018).Assessing the gains and vulnerability of free trade: A counterfactual analysis of Macau.ECONOMIC MODELLING,70,147-158.
MLA	Yin, Hua,et al."Assessing the gains and vulnerability of free trade: A counterfactual analysis of Macau".ECONOMIC MODELLING 70(2018):147-158.