Multiple-response Bayesian calibration of watershed water quality models   with significant input and model structure errors

doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2015.12.007

CORC > 北京大学 > 工学院

	Multiple-response Bayesian calibration of watershed water quality models with significant input and model structure errors
	Han, Feng ; Zheng, Yi
刊名	ADVANCES IN WATER RESOURCES
	2016
关键词	Water quality modeling Non-point source pollution Bayesian inference Markov chain Monte Carlo Multiple-response calibration Uncertainty analysis PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS CATCHMENT-SCALE MANAGEMENT INFERENCE NITROGEN SIMULATION RIVER SWAT
DOI	10.1016/j.advwatres.2015.12.007
英文摘要	While watershed water quality (WWQ) models have been widely used to support water quality management, their profound modeling uncertainty remains an unaddressed issue. Data assimilation via Bayesian calibration is a promising solution to the uncertainty, but has been rarely practiced for WWQ modeling. This study applied multiple-response Bayesian calibration (MRBC) to SWAT, a classic WWQ model, using the nitrate pollution in the Newport Bay Watershed (southern California, USA) as the study case. How typical input and model structure errors would impact modeling uncertainty, parameter identification and management decision-making was systematically investigated through both synthetic and real-situation modeling cases. The main study findings include: (1) with an efficient sampling scheme, MRBC is applicable to WWQ modeling in characterizing its parametric and predictive uncertainties; (2) incorporating hydrology responses, which are less susceptible to input and model structure errors than water quality responses, can improve the Bayesian calibration results and benefit potential modeling-based management decisions; and (3) the value of MRBC to modeling-based decision-making essentially depends on pollution severity, management objective and decision maker's risk tolerance. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [91225301, 91125021, 41371473]; China's National Science & Technology Pillar Program [2012BAC03B02]; SCI(E); EI; ARTICLE; yizheng@pku.edu.cn; 109-123; 88
语种	英语
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.pku.edu.cn/handle/20.500.11897/437743]
专题	工学院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Han, Feng,Zheng, Yi. Multiple-response Bayesian calibration of watershed water quality models with significant input and model structure errors[J]. ADVANCES IN WATER RESOURCES,2016.
APA	Han, Feng,&Zheng, Yi.(2016).Multiple-response Bayesian calibration of watershed water quality models with significant input and model structure errors.ADVANCES IN WATER RESOURCES.
MLA	Han, Feng,et al."Multiple-response Bayesian calibration of watershed water quality models with significant input and model structure errors".ADVANCES IN WATER RESOURCES (2016).