Interactive decision procedure for watershed nutrient load reduction: An   integrated chance-constrained programming model with risk-cost tradeoff

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.07.014

CORC > 北京大学 > 环境科学与工程学院

	Interactive decision procedure for watershed nutrient load reduction: An integrated chance-constrained programming model with risk-cost tradeoff
	Dong, Feifei ; Liu, Yong ; Qian, Ling ; Sheng, Hu ; Yang, Yonghui ; Guo, Huaicheng ; Zhao, Lei
刊名	environmental modelling software
	2014
关键词	Nutrient load reduction Multiple risks Interactive decision making Chance constrained programming Taguchi method Artificial neural network Augmented Lagrangian genetic algorithm ARTIFICIAL NEURAL-NETWORKS QUALITY MANAGEMENT GENETIC-ALGORITHM DETERMINISTIC EQUIVALENTS INEQUALITY CONSTRAINTS UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS SIMPLE BOUNDS OPTIMIZATION SIMULATION PARAMETERS
DOI	10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.07.014
英文摘要	Nutrient load reduction is a well-recognized requirement for aquatic ecosystem restoration. However, decision making is difficult due to challenges related to uncertainty and the interaction between decision makers and modelers, including (a) the quantitative relationship between risks arising from different aspects and the fact that cost is not usually revealed and (b) the fact that decision makers are not significantly involved in the modeling process. In this study, an interactive optimal-decision procedure with risk-cost tradeoff is proposed to overcome these limitations. It consists of chance-constrained programming (CCP) models, risk scenario analysis using the Taguchi method, risk-cost tradeoff and feedback for model adaption. A hybrid intelligent algorithm (HIA) integrating Monte Carlo simulation, artificial neural networks, and an augmented Lagrangian genetic algorithm was developed and applied to solve the CCP model. The proposed decision procedure and HIA are illustrated through a case study of uncertainty-based optimal nutrient load reduction in the Lake Qionghai Watershed, China. The CCP model has four constraints associated with risk levels indicating the possibility of constraint violation. Sixteen risk scenarios were designed with the Taguchi method to recognize the interactions between multiple constraint risks and total cost. The results were analyzed using the signal-to-noise ratio, analysis of variance, and multivariate regression. The model results demonstrate how cost is affected by risk for the four constraints and show that the proposed approach can provide effective support for decision making on risk-cost tradeoffs. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.; Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications; Engineering, Environmental; Environmental Sciences; SCI(E); 1; ARTICLE; yongliu@pku.edu.cn; 166-173; 61
语种	英语
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.pku.edu.cn/handle/20.500.11897/158225]
专题	环境科学与工程学院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dong, Feifei,Liu, Yong,Qian, Ling,et al. Interactive decision procedure for watershed nutrient load reduction: An integrated chance-constrained programming model with risk-cost tradeoff[J]. environmental modelling software,2014.
APA	Dong, Feifei.,Liu, Yong.,Qian, Ling.,Sheng, Hu.,Yang, Yonghui.,...&Zhao, Lei.(2014).Interactive decision procedure for watershed nutrient load reduction: An integrated chance-constrained programming model with risk-cost tradeoff.environmental modelling software.
MLA	Dong, Feifei,et al."Interactive decision procedure for watershed nutrient load reduction: An integrated chance-constrained programming model with risk-cost tradeoff".environmental modelling software (2014).