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	Analysis of Characteristics and Trends of Temperature Change Over a 50-Year Period in the Gansu Province, China
	Zhu, Wen-bo ; Liu, Ya
	2016
关键词	Temperature interpolation Spatial distribution Time series analysis
英文摘要	The northwestern part of China has been experiencing significant "warming" because of climate change. However, temperature changes are variable over the complex terrain in the Gansu Province, where significant heterogeneity can be observed at the surface, and this adds to regional instability regarding agricultural production and the ecological environment. Since there are few meteorological stations in this region, studies on climate change and the associated impacts have been difficult to conduct. Therefore, it is important to gather more information on the patterns of climate change in the region and the corresponding impacts. In this study, monthly average temperatures from 1962 to 2011 were first calculated using original data that were recorded at 43 national meteorological stations in the Gansu Province and surrounding areas. Additionally, Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data with a spatial resolution of 30m were combined with a global digital elevation model (GDEM). Missing values were compensated with averages of 5 x 5 adjacent pixels. Spatial resampling was conducted at a resolution of 1000m. Then, the spatial distribution of monthly average temperatures from January to December was generated using AUNSPLIN-elevation and longitude were used as independent variables and elevation is the covariate variable-and interpolated using the cubic-spline method. Lastly, the spatial analyst tool in Arc GIS 10.0 was used to obtain the spatial distribution characteristics of the average annual and seasonal (spring: April, summer: July, autumn: October, and winter: January) temperature changes in the Gansu Province over the 50-year period. Trend analyses were also conducted. Our results are as follows. (1) A significant warming trend was observed; the rate of temperature change in the Gansu Province over the last 50 years was 0.34 degrees C/10 a, which is slightly lower than that of the Tibetan Plateau (0.37 degrees C/10a) but much higher than that of the national warming average (0.23 degrees C/10a). (2) Significant seasonal temperature increases were detected; the seasonal temperature trends decreased in the order of summer (0.39 degrees C/10a) > spring (0.35 degrees C/10a) > autumn (0.22 degrees C/10a) > winter (0.19 degrees C/10a), which shows that winter is associated with a relatively low-rate temperature change. (3) The ANUSPLIN method improved interpolation accuracy. In the future, underlying surface factors should be introduced into the model to obtain vegetation index and land cover data for the same period based on remote sensing data and build a more comprehensive temperature estimation model.; CPCI-S(ISTP); 875-884
语种	英语
出处	International Conference on Environmental Science and Engineering (ESE)
内容类型	其他
源URL	[http://ir.pku.edu.cn/handle/20.500.11897/460000]
专题	城市与环境学院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhu, Wen-bo,Liu, Ya. Analysis of Characteristics and Trends of Temperature Change Over a 50-Year Period in the Gansu Province, China. 2016-01-01.

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