Quantifying uncertainties from additional nitrogen data and processes in a terrestrial ecosystem model with Bayesian probabilistic inversion

doi:10.1002/2016MS000687

CORC > 地理科学与资源研究所 > 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 > 生态系统研究网络观测与模拟重点实验室 > CERN水分分中心

	Quantifying uncertainties from additional nitrogen data and processes in a terrestrial ecosystem model with Bayesian probabilistic inversion
	Du, Zhenggang 1; Zhou, Xuhui 1,2; Shao, Junjiong 1,2; Yu, Guirui 3; Wang, Huimin 3; Zhai, Deping 1; Xia, Jianyang 1,2; Luo, Yiqi 2,4,5
刊名	JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS
	2017-03-01
卷号	9 期号:1 页码:548-565
关键词	uncertainty data assimilation carbon-nitrogen coupling model Shannon information index relative information
ISSN号	1942-2466
DOI	10.1002/2016MS000687
通讯作者	Zhou, Xuhui(xhzhou@des.ecnu.edu.cn)
英文摘要	Substantial efforts have recently been made toward integrating more processes to improve ecosystem model performances. However, model uncertainties caused by new processes and/or data sets remain largely unclear. In this study, we explore uncertainties resulting from additional nitrogen (N) data and processes in a terrestrial ecosystem (TECO) model framework using a data assimilation system. Three assimilation experiments were conducted with TECO-C-C (carbon (C)-only model), TECO-CN-C (TECO-CN coupled model with only C measurements as assimilating data), and TECO-CN-CN (TECO-CN model with both C and N measurements). Our results showed that additional N data had greater effects on ecosystem C storage (+68% and +55%) compared with added N processes (+32% and -45%) at the end of the experimental period (2009) and the long-term prediction (2100), respectively. The uncertainties mainly resulted from woody biomass (relative information contributions are +50.4% and +36.6%) and slow soil organic matter pool (+30.6% and -37.7%) at the end of the experimental period and the long-term prediction, respectively. During the experimental period, the additional N processes affected C dynamics mainly through process-induced disequilibrium in the initial value of C pools. However, in the long-term prediction period, the N data and processes jointly influenced the simulated C dynamics by adjusting the posterior probability density functions of key parameters. These results suggest that additional measurements of slow processes are pivotal to improving model predictions. Quantifying the uncertainty of the additional N data and processes can help us explore the terrestrial C-N coupling in ecosystem models and highlight critical observational needs for future studies.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[31370489] ; Shanghai Municipal Education Commission[14ZZ053] ; Program for Professor of Special Appointment (Eastern Scholar) at Shanghai Institutions of Higher Learning ; Thousand Young Talents'' Program in China
WOS关键词	AIR CO2 ENRICHMENT ; DATA ASSIMILATION ; CARBON-CYCLE ; BIOGEOCHEMICAL MODELS ; TEMPERATE FOREST ; SOIL ; DYNAMICS ; PHOTOSYNTHESIS ; EQUIFINALITY ; RESPIRATION
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
WOS记录号	WOS:000399756400028
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Shanghai Municipal Education Commission ; Program for Professor of Special Appointment (Eastern Scholar) at Shanghai Institutions of Higher Learning ; Thousand Young Talents'' Program in China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/64575]
专题	地理科学与资源研究所_生态系统研究网络观测与模拟重点实验室_CERN水分分中心
通讯作者	Zhou, Xuhui
作者单位	1.East China Normal Univ, Shanghai Key Lab Urban Ecol Proc & Eco Restorat, Tiantong Natl Field Observat Stn Forest Ecosyst, ECNU UH Joint Translat Sci & Technol Res Inst,Sch, Shanghai, Peoples R China 2.East China Normal Univ, Ctr Global Change & Ecol Forecasting, Shanghai, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resource Res, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Univ Oklahoma, Dept Microbiol & Plant Biol, Norman, OK 73019 USA 5.Tsinghua Univ, Ctr Earth Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Du, Zhenggang,Zhou, Xuhui,Shao, Junjiong,et al. Quantifying uncertainties from additional nitrogen data and processes in a terrestrial ecosystem model with Bayesian probabilistic inversion[J]. JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS,2017,9(1):548-565.
APA	Du, Zhenggang.,Zhou, Xuhui.,Shao, Junjiong.,Yu, Guirui.,Wang, Huimin.,...&Luo, Yiqi.(2017).Quantifying uncertainties from additional nitrogen data and processes in a terrestrial ecosystem model with Bayesian probabilistic inversion.JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS,9(1),548-565.
MLA	Du, Zhenggang,et al."Quantifying uncertainties from additional nitrogen data and processes in a terrestrial ecosystem model with Bayesian probabilistic inversion".JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS 9.1(2017):548-565.