Estimating the in-use cement stock in China: 1920-2013

doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.01.021

	Estimating the in-use cement stock in China: 1920-2013
	Cao, Zhi 1; Shen, Lei 1,2; Liu, Litao 1; Zhao, Jianan 1,2; Zhong, Shuai 1; Kong, Hanxiao 1,2; Sun, Yanzhi 1,2
刊名	RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING
	2017-07-01
卷号	122 页码:21-31
关键词	Cement In-use stock Dynamic MFA Uncertainty analysis Monte Carlo
ISSN号	0921-3449
DOI	10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.01.021
通讯作者	Shen, Lei(shenlei0603@gmail.com) ; Liu, Litao(liult@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Cement provides a foundational function for buildings and infrastructures in the modern society. Huge amounts of cement have been consumed during the rapid urbanization process in China. Understanding the trajectory of the in-use cement stock could gain insight into the cement inflow, waste flow and associated environmental impacts. However, an economy-wide estimation for Chinese in-use cement stock is still lacking. Using the dynamic MFA, this paper seeks to provide a long-period (1920-2013) estimate for Chinese in-use cement stock in three branches (i.e., buildings, infrastructure facilities and agriculture facilities). To evaluate uncertainties inherent in the in-use cement stock, the Monte Carlo method is adopted here to calculate the confidence intervals of the results. The simulation results demonstrate that, at the end of 2013, Chinese in-use cement stock has reached 21.5 billion metric tons whilst in-use cement stocks of the building, infrastructure and agriculture sector are 17.3, 3.4 and 0.8 billion metric tons, respectively. During the recent decade, the per capita in-use cement has been experiencing a sharp increase from 2.1t/capita in 1992-15.8t/capita in 2013. The exponential growth of Chinese in-use cement stock underlines the need for prolonging the lifetime and reducing cement intensity of buildings and infrastructures to realize dematerialization in China. The estimation on the historical evolution of the in-use cement stock could lay a solid foundation for predicting the future cement demand and related environmental impacts. In addition, robustness of the estimation method has been validated by the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
资助项目	Strategic Priority Research Program - Climate Change: Carbon Budget and Related Issues of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA05010400] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41271547] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41401644] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41501604]
WOS关键词	MATERIAL FLOW-ANALYSIS ; DYNAMIC-ANALYSIS ; ALUMINUM STOCKS ; CO2 EMISSIONS ; STEEL CYCLE ; MATERIALS DEMAND ; UNITED-STATES ; ENERGY USE ; IRON ; COPPER
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
WOS记录号	WOS:000401881300003
资助机构	Strategic Priority Research Program - Climate Change: Carbon Budget and Related Issues of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/64488]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Shen, Lei; Liu, Litao
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, 11A Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cao, Zhi,Shen, Lei,Liu, Litao,et al. Estimating the in-use cement stock in China: 1920-2013[J]. RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING,2017,122:21-31.
APA	Cao, Zhi.,Shen, Lei.,Liu, Litao.,Zhao, Jianan.,Zhong, Shuai.,...&Sun, Yanzhi.(2017).Estimating the in-use cement stock in China: 1920-2013.RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING,122,21-31.
MLA	Cao, Zhi,et al."Estimating the in-use cement stock in China: 1920-2013".RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING 122(2017):21-31.