Spatiotemporal risk mapping of hand, foot and mouth disease and its association with meteorological variables in children under 5 years

doi:10.1017/S0950268817001984

	Spatiotemporal risk mapping of hand, foot and mouth disease and its association with meteorological variables in children under 5 years
	Xu, C. D.1; Xiao, G. X.2
刊名	EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION
	2017-10-01
卷号	145 期号:14 页码:2912-2920
关键词	Foot and mouth disease hand meteorological factors risk mapping
ISSN号	0950-2688
DOI	10.1017/S0950268817001984
通讯作者	Xu, C. D.(xucd@lreis.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) risk has become an increasing concern in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, which is the biggest urban agglomeration in north-eastern Asia. In the study, spatiotemporal epidemiological features of HFMD were analysed, and a Bayesian space-time hierarchy model was used to detect local spatial relative risk (RR) and to assess the effect of meteorological factors. From 2009 to 2013, there was an obvious seasonal pattern of HFMD risk. The highest risk period was in the summer, with an average monthly incidence of 4.17/10(3), whereas the index in wintertime was 0.16/10(3). Meteorological variables influenced temporal changes in HFMD. A 1 degrees C rise in air temperature was associated with an 11.5% increase in HFMD (corresponding RR 1.122). A 1% rise in relative humidity was related to a 9.51% increase in the number of HFMD cases (corresponding RR 1.100). A 1 hPa increment in air pressure was related to a 0.11% decrease in HFMD (corresponding RR 0.999). A 1 h increase in sunshine was associated with a 0.28% rise in HFMD cases (corresponding RR 1.003). A 1 m/s rise in wind speed was related to a 6.2% increase in HFMD (corresponding RR 1.064). High-risk areas were mainly large cities, such as Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang and their neighbouring areas. These findings can contribute to risk control and implementation of disease-prevention policies.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41601419] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41531179] ; Youth Science Funds of LREIS, CAS ; IGSNRR new scientific research project[Y5V5001AYE] ; Innovation Project of LREIS[O88RA205YA] ; Innovation Project of LREIS[O88RA200YA] ; Special Scientific Research Fund of Public Welfare Profession of China[GYHY20140616]
WOS关键词	ENTEROVIRUS 71 ; CHINA ; EPIDEMIC ; MODELS
WOS研究方向	Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Infectious Diseases
语种	英语
出版者	CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS
WOS记录号	WOS:000413208700005
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Youth Science Funds of LREIS, CAS ; IGSNRR new scientific research project ; Innovation Project of LREIS ; Special Scientific Research Fund of Public Welfare Profession of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/62457]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Xu, C. D.
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.China Natl Ctr Food Safety Risk Assessment, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xu, C. D.,Xiao, G. X.. Spatiotemporal risk mapping of hand, foot and mouth disease and its association with meteorological variables in children under 5 years[J]. EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION,2017,145(14):2912-2920.
APA	Xu, C. D.,&Xiao, G. X..(2017).Spatiotemporal risk mapping of hand, foot and mouth disease and its association with meteorological variables in children under 5 years.EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION,145(14),2912-2920.
MLA	Xu, C. D.,et al."Spatiotemporal risk mapping of hand, foot and mouth disease and its association with meteorological variables in children under 5 years".EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION 145.14(2017):2912-2920.