Future forest dynamics under climate change, land use change, and harvest in subtropical forests in Southern China

doi:10.1007/s10980-019-00809-8

	Future forest dynamics under climate change, land use change, and harvest in subtropical forests in Southern China
	Wu, Zhuo 1; Dai, Erfu 2; Wu, Zhifeng 1; Lin, Meizhen 1
刊名	LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY
	2019-04-01
卷号	34 期号:4 页码:843-863
关键词	Forest dynamics Forest disturbances Climate change Land use Model integration Subtropical forests
ISSN号	0921-2973
DOI	10.1007/s10980-019-00809-8
通讯作者	Wu, Zhuo(gzuwzf@163.com)
英文摘要	ContextSubtropical forests have and will continue to face tremendous pressure from various disturbances, which have the potential to alter forest composition, structure, and function. Forest dynamics relate to spatial patterns, ecological processes, and their interactions. However, integrating forest ecosystems and land systems has seldom been attempted in southern China.ObjectivesWe explore the spatiotemporal response and trajectories of forest dynamics at different scales under climate change, harvesting, and land-use disturbances in the near future.MethodsWe simulated forest landscape dynamics by integrating a forest landscape model (LANDIS-II), an ecosystem model (PnET-II), and a land change model (CA-Markov) for 2010 to 2050. We identified changes in forest composition, aboveground biomass, and landscape patterns under individual and integrated scenarios, including a control scenario, climate change, harvesting, and land-use change for tree species, ecoregions, and forest types.ResultsFor forest composition, the forest area continued to increase, and coniferous forests increased approximately 3.7 times that of broad-leaved forests. Harvesting reduced aboveground biomass, with a reduction of 30.3% in comparison to the control scenario. The integrated disturbances showed a greater impact on the forest landscape. Landscape fragmentation increased, showing that the patch density increased by 52.3% (control scenario), 46.2% (climate change), 118.4% (harvest), 55.0% (land use change) and 139.5% (integrated scenarios), respectively.ConclusionsOur results suggest that climate change will contribute to forest growth, especially for coniferous forests. Harvesting will reduce forest area and aboveground biomass. The interaction between human activities and climate change contributes to diminished forest expansion and increased landscape fragmentation.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41801068] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41771097] ; Forestry Science and Technology Innovation Project of Guangdong[2018KJCX013] ; National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program)[2015CB452702]
WOS关键词	NET PRIMARY PRODUCTION ; ABOVEGROUND BIOMASS ; SPATIAL SIMULATION ; CONIFER PLANTATION ; BIODIVERSITY LOSS ; DRIVING FORCES ; SEED DISPERSAL ; URBAN SPRAWL ; CHANGE RISK ; LANDSCAPE
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Physical Geography ; Geology
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS记录号	WOS:000467558400009
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Forestry Science and Technology Innovation Project of Guangdong ; National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program)
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/59843]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Wu, Zhuo
作者单位	1.Guangzhou Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Guangzhou Higher Educ Mega Ctr, 230 Wai Huan Xi Rd, Guangzhou 510006, Guangdong, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, 11A,Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wu, Zhuo,Dai, Erfu,Wu, Zhifeng,et al. Future forest dynamics under climate change, land use change, and harvest in subtropical forests in Southern China[J]. LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY,2019,34(4):843-863.
APA	Wu, Zhuo,Dai, Erfu,Wu, Zhifeng,&Lin, Meizhen.(2019).Future forest dynamics under climate change, land use change, and harvest in subtropical forests in Southern China.LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY,34(4),843-863.
MLA	Wu, Zhuo,et al."Future forest dynamics under climate change, land use change, and harvest in subtropical forests in Southern China".LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY 34.4(2019):843-863.