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	Estimation of future precipitation change in the Yangtze River basin by using statistical downscaling method
	Huang, Jin1; Zhang, Jinchi1; Zhang, Zengxin1; Xu, ChongYu2,4; Wang, Baoliang3; Yao, Jian1
刊名	STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
	2011-08-01
卷号	25期号:6页码:781-792
关键词	Statistical downscaling model SDSM Precipitation The Yangtze River basin China
ISSN号	1436-3240
DOI	10.1007/s00477-010-0441-9
通讯作者	Zhang, Jinchi(zjcforest@yahoo.com.cn)
英文摘要	In this study, the applicability of the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) in downscaling precipitation in the Yangtze River basin, China was investigated. The investigation includes the calibration of the SDSM model by using large-scale atmospheric variables encompassing NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the validation of the model using independent period of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the general circulation model (GCM) outputs of scenarios A2 and B2 of the HadCM3 model, and the prediction of the future regional precipitation scenarios. Selected as climate variables for downscaling were measured daily precipitation data (1961-2000) from 136 weather stations in the Yangtze River basin. The results showed that: (1) there existed good relationship between the observed and simulated precipitation during the calibration period of 1961-1990 as well as the validation period of 1991-2000. And the results of simulated monthly and seasonal precipitation were better than that of daily. The average R (2) values between the simulated and observed monthly and seasonal precipitation for the validation period were 0.78 and 0.91 respectively for the whole basin, which showed that the SDSM had a good applicability on simulating precipitation in the Yangtze River basin. (2) Under both scenarios A2 and B2, during the prediction period of 2010-2099, the change of annual mean precipitation in the Yangtze River basin would present a trend of deficit precipitation in 2020s; insignificant changes in the 2050s; and a surplus of precipitation in the 2080s as compared to the mean values of the base period. The annual mean precipitation would increase by about 15.29% under scenario A2 and increase by about 5.33% under scenario B2 in the 2080s. The winter and autumn might be the more distinct seasons with more predicted changes of precipitation than in other seasons. And (3) there would be distinctive spatial distribution differences for the change of annual mean precipitation in the river basin, but the most of Yangtze River basin would be dominated by the increasing trend.
收录类别	SCI
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; CIRCULATION ; SCENARIOS
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Engineering, Environmental ; Engineering, Civil ; Environmental Sciences ; Statistics & Probability ; Water Resources
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS记录号	WOS:000292021700004
内容类型	期刊论文
URI标识	http://www.corc.org.cn/handle/1471x/2559070
专题	南京土壤研究所
通讯作者	Zhang, Jinchi
作者单位	1.Nanjing Forestry Univ, Jiangsu Key Lab Forestry Ecol Engn, Nanjing 210037, Peoples R China 2.Nanjing Univ, Sch Geog & Oceanog Sci, Nanjing 210093, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Nanjing Inst Soil Sci, Nanjing 210008, Peoples R China 4.Univ Oslo, Dept Geosci, Oslo, Norway
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Huang, Jin,Zhang, Jinchi,Zhang, Zengxin,et al. Estimation of future precipitation change in the Yangtze River basin by using statistical downscaling method[J]. STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,2011,25(6):781-792.
APA	Huang, Jin,Zhang, Jinchi,Zhang, Zengxin,Xu, ChongYu,Wang, Baoliang,&Yao, Jian.(2011).Estimation of future precipitation change in the Yangtze River basin by using statistical downscaling method.STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,25(6),781-792.
MLA	Huang, Jin,et al."Estimation of future precipitation change in the Yangtze River basin by using statistical downscaling method".STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT 25.6(2011):781-792.

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