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	Projection of future streamflow of the Hunza River Basin, Karakoram Range (Pakistan) using HBV hydrological model
	Ali, Ayaz Fateh1,2; Xiao Cun-de3; Zhang Xiao-peng1,2; Adnan, Muhammad1,2; Iqbal, Mudassar2,4; Khan, Garee5
刊名	JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE
	2018-10-01
卷号	15期号:10页码:2218-2235
关键词	HBV Light model Hydrological modeling Hunza River Upper Indus Basin Snow and glacier-melt
ISSN号	1672-6316
DOI	10.1007/s11629-018-4907-4
通讯作者	Xiao Cun-de(cdxiao@bnu.edu.cn)
英文摘要	Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdeling (HBV) Light model was used to evaluate the performance of the model in response to climate change in the snowy and glaciated catchment area of Hunza River Basin. The study aimed to understand the temporal variation of streamflow of Hunza River and its contribution to Indus River System (IRS). HBV model performed fairly well both during calibration (R-2=0.87, R-eff=0.85, PBIAS=-0.36) and validation (R-2=0.86, R-eff=0.83, PBIAS=-13.58) periods on daily time scale in the Hunza River Basin. Model performed better on monthly time scale with slightly underestimated low flows period during both calibration (R-2=0.94, R-eff=0.88, PBIAS=0.47) and validation (R-2=0.92, R-eff=0.85, PBIAS=15.83) periods. Simulated streamflow analysis from 1995-2010 unveiled that the average percentage contribution of snow, rain and glacier melt to the streamflow of Hunza River is about 16.5%, 19.4% and 64% respectively. In addition, the HBV-Light model performance was also evaluated for prediction of future streamflow in the Hunza River using future projected data of three General Circulation Model (GCMs) i.e. BCC-CSM1.1, CanESM2, and MIROC-ESM under RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 and predictions were made over three time periods, 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099, using 1980-2010 as the control period. Overall projected climate results reveal that temperature and precipitation are the most sensitive parameters to the streamflow of Hunza River. MIROC-ESM predicted the highest increase in the future streamflow of the Hunza River due to increase in temperature and precipitation under RCP(4.)5 and 8.5 scenarios from 2010-2099 while predicted slight increase in the streamflow under RCP2.6 during the start and end of the 21th century. However, BCC-CSM1.1 predicted decrease in the streamflow under RCP8.5 due to decrease in temperature and precipitation from 2010-2099. However, CanESM2 predicted 22%-88% increase in the streamflow under RCP4.5 from 2010-2099. The results of this study could be useful for decision making and effective future strategic plans for water management and their sustainability in the region.
收录类别	SCI
WOS关键词	DAILY TEMPERATURE EXTREMES ; UPPER INDUS BASIN ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; WATER-RESOURCES ; RUNOFF-MODEL ; NORTHERN PAKISTAN ; BIAS CORRECTION ; SCENARIOS ; REGION ; UNCERTAINTY
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	SCIENCE PRESS
WOS记录号	WOS:000447295900011
内容类型	期刊论文
URI标识	http://www.corc.org.cn/handle/1471x/2558288
专题	寒区旱区环境与工程研究所
通讯作者	Xiao Cun-de
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, State Key Lab Cryospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Land Surface & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Key Lab Land Surface Proc & Climate Change Cold &, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, Peoples R China 5.Karakoram Int Univ, Dept Earth Sci, Gilgit 15100, Pakistan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ali, Ayaz Fateh,Xiao Cun-de,Zhang Xiao-peng,et al. Projection of future streamflow of the Hunza River Basin, Karakoram Range (Pakistan) using HBV hydrological model[J]. JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,2018,15(10):2218-2235.
APA	Ali, Ayaz Fateh,Xiao Cun-de,Zhang Xiao-peng,Adnan, Muhammad,Iqbal, Mudassar,&Khan, Garee.(2018).Projection of future streamflow of the Hunza River Basin, Karakoram Range (Pakistan) using HBV hydrological model.JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,15(10),2218-2235.
MLA	Ali, Ayaz Fateh,et al."Projection of future streamflow of the Hunza River Basin, Karakoram Range (Pakistan) using HBV hydrological model".JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE 15.10(2018):2218-2235.

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