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	Projections for the changes in growing season length of tree-ring formation on the Tibetan Plateau based on CMIP5 model simulations
	He, Minhui1,2; Yang, Bao1; Shishov, Vladimir3; Rossi, Sergio4,5; Braeuning, Achim2; Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier6,7; Griessinger, Jussi2
刊名	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY
	2018-04-01
卷号	62期号:4页码:631-641
关键词	Phenology Temperature sensitivity Representative Concentration Pathways Climate predictions
ISSN号	0020-7128
DOI	10.1007/s00484-017-1472-4
通讯作者	He, Minhui(hmh0503lb@163.com)
英文摘要	The response of the growing season to the ongoing global warming has gained considerable attention. In particular, how and to which extent the growing season will change during this century is essential information for the Tibetan Plateau, where the observed warming trend has exceeded the global mean. In this study, the 1960-2014 mean length of the tree-ring growing season (LOS) on the Tibetan Plateau was derived from results of the Vaganov-Shashkin oscilloscope tree growth model, based on 20 composite study sites and more than 3000 trees. Bootstrap and partial correlations were used to evaluate the most significant climate factors determining the LOS in the study region. Based on this relationship, we predicted the future variability of the LOS under three emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5, representing different concentrations of greenhouse gasses) derived from 17 Earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The averaged LOS on the Tibetan Plateau is 103 days during the period 1960-2014, and April-September minimum temperature is the strongest factor controlling the LOS. We detected a general increase in the LOS over the twenty-first century under all the three selected scenarios. By the middle of this century, LOS will extend by about 3 to 4 weeks under the RCPs 2.6 and 6.0, and by more than 1 month (37 days) under the RCP 8.5, relative to the baseline period 1960-2014. From the middle to the end of the twenty-first century, LOS will further extend by about 3 to 4 weeks under the RCPs 6.0 and 8.5, respectively. Under the RCP 2.6 scenario, however, the extension reaches a plateau at around 2050 and about 2 weeks LOS extension. In total, we found an average rate of 2.1, 3.6, and 5.0 days decade(-1) for the LOS extension from 2015 to 2100 under the RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. However, such estimated LOS extensions may be offset by other ecological factors that were not included into the growth model. The estimated lengthening of the growing season could substantially affect carbon sequestration and forest productivity on the Tibetan Plateau.
收录类别	SCI
WOS关键词	DELAYED SPRING PHENOLOGY ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; ECOSYSTEM PRODUCTIVITY ; GREEN-UP ; TEMPERATURE ; CONIFERS ; FOREST ; XYLOGENESIS ; SCENARIOS ; DURATION
WOS研究方向	Biophysics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Physiology
WOS类目	Biophysics ; Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Physiology
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS记录号	WOS:000428562000013
内容类型	期刊论文
URI标识	http://www.corc.org.cn/handle/1471x/2558136
专题	寒区旱区环境与工程研究所
通讯作者	He, Minhui
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Key Lab Desert & Desertificat, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China 2.Univ Erlangen Nurnberg, Inst Geog, D-91058 Erlangen, Germany 3.Siberian Fed Univ, Math Methods & Informat Technol Dept, L Prushinskoi St 2, Krasnoyarsk 660075, Russia 4.Univ Quebec Chicoutimi, Dept Sci Fondamentales, Chicoutimi, PQ, Canada 5.Chinese Acad Sci, South China Bot Garden, Guangdong Prov Key Lab Appl Bot, Key Lab Vegetat Restorat & Management Degraded Ec, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China 6.Stockholm Univ, Dept Hist, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden 7.Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	He, Minhui,Yang, Bao,Shishov, Vladimir,et al. Projections for the changes in growing season length of tree-ring formation on the Tibetan Plateau based on CMIP5 model simulations[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY,2018,62(4):631-641.
APA	He, Minhui.,Yang, Bao.,Shishov, Vladimir.,Rossi, Sergio.,Braeuning, Achim.,...&Griessinger, Jussi.(2018).Projections for the changes in growing season length of tree-ring formation on the Tibetan Plateau based on CMIP5 model simulations.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY,62(4),631-641.
MLA	He, Minhui,et al."Projections for the changes in growing season length of tree-ring formation on the Tibetan Plateau based on CMIP5 model simulations".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 62.4(2018):631-641.

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