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	Assessing Parameter Importance of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Based On Global Sensitivity Analysis Methods
	Ji, Dong1; Dong, Wenjie2,3; Hong, Tao1; Dai, Tanlong1; Zheng, Zhiyuan2,4; Yang, Shili1; Zhu, Xian1,3
刊名	JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
	2018-05-16
卷号	123期号:9页码:4443-4460
ISSN号	2169-897X
DOI	10.1002/2017JD027348
通讯作者	Dong, Wenjie(dongwj3@mail.sysu.edu.cn)
英文摘要	The effectiveness and efficiency of two state-of-the-art global sensitivity analysis (SA) methods, the Morris and surrogate-based Sobol' methods, are evaluated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, version 3.6.1. The sensitivities of precipitation and other related meteorological variables to 11 selected parameters in the new Kain-Fritsch Scheme, WRF Single-Moment 6-class Scheme, and Yonsei University Scheme are then investigated. The results demonstrate that (1) the Morris method is effective and efficient for screening important parameters qualitatively, and with recommended settings of levels p = 8 and replication times r = 10 only 10 x (D + 1) WRF runs are required, where D is the dimension of parameter space; (2) Gaussian process regression (GP) is the best method for constructing surrogates, and the GP-based Sobol' method can provide reliable quantitative results for sensitivity analysis when the number of WRF runs exceeds 200; and (3) the sensitivity index in the Morris method is closely related to the Sobol' index S-T, and even for qualitative sensitivity analysis, the GP-based Sobol' method is more efficient compared to the Morris method. The SA results show that larger values of the downdraft-related parameter x(1), entrainment-related parameter x(2), and downdraft starting height x(3) significantly decrease rainfall, while the maximum allowed value for the cloud ice diameter x(6) has a moderate decreasing effect on precipitation. This work is useful for further tuning of the WRF to improve the agreement between the climate model and observations.
收录类别	SCI
WOS关键词	FRITSCH CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION ; SUMMER MONSOON PRECIPITATION ; REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL ; WRF MODEL ; UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION ; OPTIMIZATION ; SCHEME ; CALIBRATION ; SIMULATION ; CIRCULATION
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
WOS记录号	WOS:000434132400003
内容类型	期刊论文
URI标识	http://www.corc.org.cn/handle/1471x/2557832
专题	寒区旱区环境与工程研究所
通讯作者	Dong, Wenjie
作者单位	1.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Zhuhai, Peoples R China 3.Beijing Normal Univ, Future Earth Res Inst, Zhuhai Joint Innovat Ctr Climate Environm Ecosyst, Zhuhai, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Key Lab Land Surface Proc & Climate Change Cold &, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ji, Dong,Dong, Wenjie,Hong, Tao,et al. Assessing Parameter Importance of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Based On Global Sensitivity Analysis Methods[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2018,123(9):4443-4460.
APA	Ji, Dong.,Dong, Wenjie.,Hong, Tao.,Dai, Tanlong.,Zheng, Zhiyuan.,...&Zhu, Xian.(2018).Assessing Parameter Importance of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Based On Global Sensitivity Analysis Methods.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,123(9),4443-4460.
MLA	Ji, Dong,et al."Assessing Parameter Importance of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Based On Global Sensitivity Analysis Methods".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 123.9(2018):4443-4460.

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