| Yield gap of winter wheat in Europe and sensitivity of potential yield to climate factors | |
| Ma, Shaoxiu1,2,3,4,8; Churkina, Galina5,6; Gessler, Arthur1,3,9; Wieland, Ralf1; Bellocchi, Gianni7 | |
| 刊名 | CLIMATE RESEARCH
 |
| 2016 | |
| 卷号 | 67期号:3页码:179-190 |
| 关键词 | Potential yield Rain-fed potential yield Yield gap ANTHRO-BGC model Winter wheat Sensitivity analysis |
| ISSN号 | 0936-577X |
| DOI | 10.3354/cr01367 |
| 通讯作者 | Ma, Shaoxiu(shaoxiuma@gmail.com) |
| 英文摘要 | It is not clear whether the changing climate in Europe will be favourable for crop yield in the future. In this study, we quantified the yield gap for the year 2000 and analyzed the sensitivity of the rain-fed potential yield of winter wheat to changes in temperature, precipitation, and CO2 across Europe. The ecosystem model ANTHRO-BGC was used to simulate potential yields; actual winter wheat yield data together with modelled potential yields were used to calculate yield gap. Artificial climate scenarios for the main climate factors used in sensitivity studies were generated according to climate scenarios from the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4). We found that there is currently a large yield gap in Eastern Europe (around 6 t ha(-1)), whereas in a few developed countries in Western Europe the harvested yield approaches potential yield (around 2 t ha(-1)). Sensitivity analysis indicates that the rain-fed potential yield could increase by about 14% in Europe, under the assumption that the changes in temperature and precipitation will be the same as those projected for 2050 from AR4, and that CO2 will increase from 380 to 550 ppm. This increase in projected potential yield is mainly due to fertilization effects caused by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations (15% yield increase), whereas the projected changes in temperature and precipitation will negatively (-1%) affect the rain-fed potential yield in Europe. |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| WOS关键词 | CROP YIELD ; STOMATAL CONDUCTANCE ; AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY ; HARVEST INDEX ; HEAT-STRESS ; IMPACTS ; MODEL ; CO2 ; PHOTOSYNTHESIS ; GROWTH |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | INTER-RESEARCH |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000372520800001 |
| 内容类型 | 期刊论文 |
| URI标识 | http://www.corc.org.cn/handle/1471x/2557389 |
| 专题 | 寒区旱区环境与工程研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Ma, Shaoxiu |
| 作者单位 | 1.Leibniz Ctr Agr Landscape Res ZALF, Eberswalder Str 84, D-15374 Muncheberg, Germany 2.Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, Hans Knoll Str 10, D-07745 Jena, Germany 3.Humboldt Univ, Fac Agr & Hort, D-12489 Berlin, Germany 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Desert & Desertificat, Cold & Arid Reg Environm & Engn Res Inst, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China 5.Humboldt Univ, Dept Geog, D-12489 Berlin, Germany 6.Inst Adv Sustainabil Studies, Berliner Str 130, D-14467 Potsdam, Germany 7.INRA, Grassland Ecosyst Res UR0874, F-63039 Clermont Ferrand, France 8.Univ New S Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia 9.Swiss Fed Inst Forest Snow & Landscape Res WSL, Zurcherstr 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ma, Shaoxiu,Churkina, Galina,Gessler, Arthur,et al. Yield gap of winter wheat in Europe and sensitivity of potential yield to climate factors[J]. CLIMATE RESEARCH,2016,67(3):179-190. |
| APA | Ma, Shaoxiu,Churkina, Galina,Gessler, Arthur,Wieland, Ralf,&Bellocchi, Gianni.(2016).Yield gap of winter wheat in Europe and sensitivity of potential yield to climate factors.CLIMATE RESEARCH,67(3),179-190. |
| MLA | Ma, Shaoxiu,et al."Yield gap of winter wheat in Europe and sensitivity of potential yield to climate factors".CLIMATE RESEARCH 67.3(2016):179-190. |
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