Prediction of the South China Sea Dipole Using SSA-MEM

doi:10.1080/07055900.2017.1406331

CORC > 海洋研究所 > 中国科学院海洋研究所 > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	Prediction of the South China Sea Dipole Using SSA-MEM
	Xia, Qiong 1,2,4; He, Yijun 2; Dong, Changming 2,3; Wei, Enbo 1
刊名	ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN
	2018
卷号	56 期号:4 页码:240-253
关键词	South China Sea sea level dipole structure SSA-MEM statistical prediction
ISSN号	0705-5900
DOI	10.1080/07055900.2017.1406331
通讯作者	He, Yijun(yjhe@nuist.edu.cn) ; Dong, Changming(cdong@atmos.ucla.edu)
英文摘要	A dipole structure appears in the sea surface height off the central coast of Vietnam during boreal summer in the South China Sea. This dipole, which possesses a chlorophyll signature associated with higher phytoplankton concentrations arising from nutrient upwelling, is important for the productivity of local fisheries. Multi-satellite sea level anomalies are used to investigate the life cycle of the dipole structure. By applying empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, the third EOF mode (EOF 3) is found to represent the major variations of the dipole structure. By removing the temporal noise of EOF 3, a South China Sea dipole index is defined. This index captures the life cycle of the dipole including its generation, mature strength, and final termination. Both one-dimensional and two-dimensional forecasts are generated using a statistical forecasting method that combines singular-spectrum analysis and the maximum entropy method. The appearance of the dipole structure can be predicted with an accuracy of 78% at one-month lead times and an accuracy of 61% at one-year lead times.
资助项目	National Key Research Program of China[2017YFA0604100] ; Natural Science Foundation of China[41476022] ; National Programme on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction[GASI-IPOVAI-05]
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Oceanography
语种	英语
出版者	CMOS-SCMO
WOS记录号	WOS:000449550700005
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/156352]
专题	海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者	He, Yijun; Dong, Changming
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 2.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Marine Sci, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 3.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA 91214 USA 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xia, Qiong,He, Yijun,Dong, Changming,et al. Prediction of the South China Sea Dipole Using SSA-MEM[J]. ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN,2018,56(4):240-253.
APA	Xia, Qiong,He, Yijun,Dong, Changming,&Wei, Enbo.(2018).Prediction of the South China Sea Dipole Using SSA-MEM.ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN,56(4),240-253.
MLA	Xia, Qiong,et al."Prediction of the South China Sea Dipole Using SSA-MEM".ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN 56.4(2018):240-253.