Identification of Hydrological Drought in Eastern China Using a Time-Dependent Drought Index

doi:10.3390/w10030315

	Identification of Hydrological Drought in Eastern China Using a Time-Dependent Drought Index
	Zou, Lei 1; Xia, Jun 1,2; Ning, Like 3; She, Dunxian 1; Zhan, Chesheng 2
刊名	WATER
	2018-03-01
卷号	10 期号:3 页码:19
关键词	hydrological drought Standardized streamflow index nonstationarity GAMLSS
ISSN号	2073-4441
DOI	10.3390/w10030315
通讯作者	Xia, Jun(xiajun666@whu.edu.cn) ; Ning, Like(ninglk@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Long records (1960-2013) of monthly streamflow observations from 8 hydrological stations in the East Asian monsoon region are modeled using a nonstationarity framework by means of the Generalized Additive Models in Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS). Modeling analyses are used to characterize nonstationarity of monthly streamflow series in different geographic regions and to select optimal distribution among five two-parameter distributions (Gamma, Lognormal, Gumbel, Weibull and Logistic). Based on the optimal nonstationarity distribution, a time-dependent Standardized Streamflow Index (denoted SSIvar) that takes account of the possible nonstationarity in streamflow series is constructed and then employed to identify drought characteristics at different time scales (at a 3-month scale and a 12-month scale) in the eight selected catchments during 1960-2013 for comparison. Results of GAMLSS models indicate that they are able to represent the magnitude and spread in the monthly streamflow series with distribution parameters that are a linear function of time. For 8 hydrological stations in different geographic regions, a noticeable difference is observed between the historical drought assessment of Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) and SSIvar, indicating that the nonstationarity could not be ignored in the hydrological drought analyses, especially for stations with change point and significant change trends. The constructed SSIvar is, to some extent, found to be more reliable and suitable for regional drought monitoring than traditional SSI in a changing environment, thereby providing a feasible alternative for drought forecasting and water resource management at different time scales.
资助项目	National Key R&D Program of China[2017YFA0603702] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41701023] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571028]
WOS关键词	GENERALIZED ADDITIVE-MODELS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; PRECIPITATION ; STATIONARITY ; FLOOD ; STREAMFLOW ; SERIES ; TRENDS ; BASIN ; RIVER
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
语种	英语
出版者	MDPI
WOS记录号	WOS:000428516000080
资助机构	National Key R&D Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/54902]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Xia, Jun; Ning, Like
作者单位	1.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Tsinghua Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Minist Educ, Key Lab Earth Syst Modeling, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zou, Lei,Xia, Jun,Ning, Like,et al. Identification of Hydrological Drought in Eastern China Using a Time-Dependent Drought Index[J]. WATER,2018,10(3):19.
APA	Zou, Lei,Xia, Jun,Ning, Like,She, Dunxian,&Zhan, Chesheng.(2018).Identification of Hydrological Drought in Eastern China Using a Time-Dependent Drought Index.WATER,10(3),19.
MLA	Zou, Lei,et al."Identification of Hydrological Drought in Eastern China Using a Time-Dependent Drought Index".WATER 10.3(2018):19.