Divergent responses of thermal growing degree-days and season to projected warming over China

doi:10.1002/joc.5766

	Divergent responses of thermal growing degree-days and season to projected warming over China
	Deng, Haoyu 1,2; Yin, Yunhe 1; Wu, Shaohong 1,2
刊名	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
	2018-12-01
卷号	38 期号:15 页码:5605-5618
关键词	China climate change growing season temperature sensitivity thermal growing degree-days
ISSN号	0899-8418
DOI	10.1002/joc.5766
通讯作者	Yin, Yunhe(yinyh@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Thermal conditions, such as thermal growing degree-days (GDD) and growing season (GS), have primary effects on vegetation growth. In this study, changes in GDD and GS during 1961-2099 in China have been projected using the daily mean temperatures derived from five general circulation models. The multi-model mean values generally capture the spatio-temporal changes in GDD and GS during 1961-2005 and are thus used for predicting the thermal conditions in the 21st century under the representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCPs). The GDD and GS are found to increase with warming, with stronger GDD enhancement in south and southwest China and larger GS extension in the eastern and southern parts of the Tibetan Plateau. On average, nationally, the GDD increase and GS extension in the long term (2071-2099) range from 279.1 degrees C.d and 16.5 days for RCP 2.6 to 964.4 degrees C.d and 50.3 days for RCP 8.5, relative to 1981-2010. Advances in the start of the growing season would drive the GS extension in the mountainous area in northeast China, as well as south and southwest China. On the contrary, the delay at the end of the growing season would drive the GS extension in northwest China and the regions between northeast China and the tropic of Cancer. An analysis under RCP 8.5 suggests that the temperature sensitivity of GDD would increase from the near term (2011-2040) to the long term for the eastern monsoon zone (237.5 to 262.1 degrees C.d/degrees C) and the northwest arid/semi-arid zone (162.3 to 184.0 degrees C.d/degrees C). However, the sensitivity of GS to the warming would decrease from 10.9 to 8.4 days/degrees C and 9.1 to 6.8 days/degrees C for these two regions, respectively. As thermal conditions intensify, temperature zones in eastern China would progressively shift northward.
资助项目	Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China[41530749] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571043]
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; TEMPERATURE ; TRENDS ; LENGTH ; PHENOLOGY ; IMPACT ; CMIP5 ; REGION ; FOREST ; VARIABILITY
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	WILEY
WOS记录号	WOS:000452432200012
资助机构	Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/51482]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Yin, Yunhe
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, 11A Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Deng, Haoyu,Yin, Yunhe,Wu, Shaohong. Divergent responses of thermal growing degree-days and season to projected warming over China[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38(15):5605-5618.
APA	Deng, Haoyu,Yin, Yunhe,&Wu, Shaohong.(2018).Divergent responses of thermal growing degree-days and season to projected warming over China.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(15),5605-5618.
MLA	Deng, Haoyu,et al."Divergent responses of thermal growing degree-days and season to projected warming over China".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.15(2018):5605-5618.