Risk factors spatial-temporal detection for dengue fever in Guangzhou

doi:10.1017/S0950268818002820

	Risk factors spatial-temporal detection for dengue fever in Guangzhou
	Kong, Lingcai 1,2; Xu, Chengdong 2; Mu, Pengfei 3; Li, Jialiang 3; Qiu, Senyue 3; Wu, Haixia 4
刊名	EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION
	2019
卷号	147 页码:9
关键词	Dengue fever determinant power GeoDetector risk factors
ISSN号	0950-2688
DOI	10.1017/S0950268818002820
通讯作者	Kong, Lingcai(konglc@lreis.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Dengue fever (DF) has been a growing public-health concern in China since its emergence in Guangdong Province in 1978. Of all the regions that have experienced dengue outbreaks in mainland China, the city of Guangzhou is the most affected. This study aims to investigate the potential risk factors for dengue virus (DENV) transmission in Guangzhou, China, from 2006 to 2014. The impact of risk factors on DENV transmission was qualified by the q-values calculated using a novel spatial-temporal method, the GeoDetector model. Both climatic and socioeconomic factors were considered. The impacts on DF incidence of each single factor and the interaction of two factors were analysed. The results show that the number of days with rainfall of the month before last has the highest determinant power, with a q-value of 0.898 (P < 0.01); the q-values of the other factors related to temperature and precipitation were around 0.38-0.50. Integrating a Pearson correlation analysis, nonlinear associations were found between the DF incidence in Guangzhou and the climatic factors considered. The coupled impact of the different variables considered was enhanced compared with their individual effects. In addition, an increased number of tourists in the city were associated with a high incidence of DF. This study demonstrates that the number of rain days in a month has great influence on the DF incidence of the month after next; the temperature and precipitation have nonlinear impacts on the DF incidence in Guangzhou; both the domestic and overseas tourists coming to the city increase the risk of DENV transmission. These findings are useful in the risk assessment of DENV transmission, to predict DF outbreaks and to implement preventive DF reduction strategies.
资助项目	Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[9161017003] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[9161018003] ; State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, the Undergraduate Innovative Test Program[201710079087]
WOS关键词	METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS ; AEDES-ALBOPICTUS ; CHINA ; TEMPERATURE ; TRANSMISSION ; EPIDEMIC ; OUTBREAK ; CLIMATE ; DISEASE ; VECTOR
WOS研究方向	Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Infectious Diseases
语种	英语
出版者	CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS
WOS记录号	WOS:000455339100031
资助机构	Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities ; State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, the Undergraduate Innovative Test Program
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/50623]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Kong, Lingcai
作者单位	1.North China Elect Power Univ, Dept Math & Phys, Baoding, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.North China Elect Power Univ, Elect & Elect Engn Sch, Baoding, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, State Key Lab Infect Dis Prevent & Control, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Diag & Treatment Infect Di, Natl Inst Communicable Dis Control & Prevent, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kong, Lingcai,Xu, Chengdong,Mu, Pengfei,et al. Risk factors spatial-temporal detection for dengue fever in Guangzhou[J]. EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION,2019,147:9.
APA	Kong, Lingcai,Xu, Chengdong,Mu, Pengfei,Li, Jialiang,Qiu, Senyue,&Wu, Haixia.(2019).Risk factors spatial-temporal detection for dengue fever in Guangzhou.EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION,147,9.
MLA	Kong, Lingcai,et al."Risk factors spatial-temporal detection for dengue fever in Guangzhou".EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION 147(2019):9.