Evaluation and mitigation of cement CO2 emissions: projection of emission scenarios toward 2030 in China and proposal of the roadmap to a low-carbon world by 2050

doi:10.1007/s11027-018-9813-0

	Evaluation and mitigation of cement CO2 emissions: projection of emission scenarios toward 2030 in China and proposal of the roadmap to a low-carbon world by 2050
	Wei, Junxiao 1; Cen, Kuang 1; Geng, Yuanbo 2
刊名	MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR GLOBAL CHANGE
	2019-02-01
卷号	24 期号:2 页码:301-328
关键词	CO2 emission CO2 reduction Cement Emission factor (EF)
ISSN号	1381-2386
DOI	10.1007/s11027-018-9813-0
通讯作者	Cen, Kuang(cenkuang@cugb.edu.cn)
英文摘要	Much attention is being paid toward reducing the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions associated with China's cement production. However, as part of China's international commitment to reduce carbon intensity, the inter-annual changes and driving forces behind CO2 emissions must be determined for the 2001-2015 period, along with the projection of the cement-related CO2 emissions until 2030. The objective of this article is to analyze the CO2 emission factors (EFs) and CO2 emissions from 2001 to 2015, project CO2 emission scenarios of China's cement industry until 2030, and propose a low-carbon roadmap for the global cement industry by 2050 based on a series of practical reduction measurements performed by China. The results of our study indicate that CO2 EFs in 2015 were 55.36% lower than those in 2001, but CO2 emissions were 72.90% higher than those in 2001. The main reason for the decreasing total active CO2 EFs are policies enacted by the Chinese government regarding the removal of excess capacity and elimination of backward capacity as well as the technological innovation and ongoing annual reductions in the clinker-to-cement ratio (C/CR). Meanwhile, the driving force behind the increased cement-related CO2 emissions was the substantial growth in cement output. Scenarios regarding CO2 emissions by 2030 show an uncertainty regarding CO2 emissions, ranging between 3.51 and 11.70%, and CO2 EFs are expected to be 59-69% lower than those in 2005. CO2 emissions from the global cement industry from 2020 to 2050 based on CO2 capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS); utilization of alternative raw materials (ARMs) and alternative fossil fuels (AFFs); and technological innovation account for 39.3, 29.3, 24.7, and 6.7% of the CO2 reduction capability, respectively. It is possible to reduce similar to 1524Mt of CO2, and the global optimal emissions by 2050 are similar to 2082Mt of CO2.
资助项目	Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA05010400]
WOS关键词	INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT ; TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION ; REDUCTION ; INDUSTRY ; PERSPECTIVE ; INVENTORY ; SAVINGS
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS记录号	WOS:000456729200007
资助机构	Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/50603]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Cen, Kuang
作者单位	1.China Univ Geosci Beijing, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wei, Junxiao,Cen, Kuang,Geng, Yuanbo. Evaluation and mitigation of cement CO2 emissions: projection of emission scenarios toward 2030 in China and proposal of the roadmap to a low-carbon world by 2050[J]. MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR GLOBAL CHANGE,2019,24(2):301-328.
APA	Wei, Junxiao,Cen, Kuang,&Geng, Yuanbo.(2019).Evaluation and mitigation of cement CO2 emissions: projection of emission scenarios toward 2030 in China and proposal of the roadmap to a low-carbon world by 2050.MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR GLOBAL CHANGE,24(2),301-328.
MLA	Wei, Junxiao,et al."Evaluation and mitigation of cement CO2 emissions: projection of emission scenarios toward 2030 in China and proposal of the roadmap to a low-carbon world by 2050".MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR GLOBAL CHANGE 24.2(2019):301-328.