Improving niche projections of plant species under climate change: Silene acaulis on the British Isles as a case study

doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4200-9

	Improving niche projections of plant species under climate change: Silene acaulis on the British Isles as a case study
	Ferrarini, Alessandro 1; Alsafran, Mohammed H. S. A.2; Dai, Junhu 3; Alatalo, Juha M.2
刊名	CLIMATE DYNAMICS
	2019-02-01
卷号	52 期号:3-4 页码:1413-1423
关键词	British Isles Climate-driven niche modelling Climate extremes Model selection Parsimonious modelling Silene acaulis Variable ranking Variable selection
ISSN号	0930-7575
DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4200-9
通讯作者	Alatalo, Juha M.(jalatalo@qu.edu.qa)
英文摘要	Empirical works to assist in choosing climatically relevant variables in the attempt to predict climate change impacts on plant species are limited. Further uncertainties arise in choice of an appropriate niche model. In this study we devised and tested a sharp methodological framework, based on stringent variable ranking and filtering and flexible model selection, to minimize uncertainty in both niche modelling and successive projection of plant species distributions. We used our approach to develop an accurate, parsimonious model of Silene acaulis (L.) presence/absence on the British Isles and to project its presence/absence under climate change. The approach suggests the importance of (a) defining a reduced set of climate variables, actually relevant to species presence/absence, from an extensive list of climate predictors, and (b) considering climate extremes instead of, or together with, climate averages in projections of plant species presence/absence under future climate scenarios. Our methodological approach reduced the number of relevant climate predictors by 95.23% (from 84 to only 4), while simultaneously achieving high cross-validated accuracy (97.84%) confirming enhanced model performance. Projections produced under different climate scenarios suggest that S. acaulis will likely face climate-driven fast decline in suitable areas on the British Isles, and that upward and northward shifts to occupy new climatically suitable areas are improbable in the future. Our results also imply that conservation measures for S. acaulis based upon assisted colonization are unlikely to succeed on the British Isles due to the absence of climatically suitable habitat, so different conservation actions (seed banks and/or botanical gardens) are needed.
WOS关键词	CUSHION PLANT ; RANGE SHIFTS ; ALPINE ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; RESPONSES ; BIODIVERSITY ; TEMPERATURES ; PREDICTIONS ; SELECTION ; SURFACES
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS记录号	WOS:000460902200007
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/49145]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Alatalo, Juha M.
作者单位	1.Via G Saragat 4, I-43123 Parma, Italy 2.Qatar Univ, Dept Biol & Environm Sci, Coll Arts & Sci, POB 2713, Doha, Qatar 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ferrarini, Alessandro,Alsafran, Mohammed H. S. A.,Dai, Junhu,et al. Improving niche projections of plant species under climate change: Silene acaulis on the British Isles as a case study[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52(3-4):1413-1423.
APA	Ferrarini, Alessandro,Alsafran, Mohammed H. S. A.,Dai, Junhu,&Alatalo, Juha M..(2019).Improving niche projections of plant species under climate change: Silene acaulis on the British Isles as a case study.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52(3-4),1413-1423.
MLA	Ferrarini, Alessandro,et al."Improving niche projections of plant species under climate change: Silene acaulis on the British Isles as a case study".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52.3-4(2019):1413-1423.