The predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions: Retrospect and prospects

doi:10.1007/s11430-016-9101-x

CORC > 海洋研究所 > 中国科学院海洋研究所 > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	The predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions: Retrospect and prospects
	Mu Mu 1,2; Duan WanSuo 3,4; Tang YouMin 5
刊名	SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES
	2017-11-01
卷号	60 期号:11 页码:2001-2012
关键词	Atmosphere-ocean Predictability Intrinsic Predictability Limit Ensemble Forecast
DOI	10.1007/s11430-016-9101-x
文献子类	Review
英文摘要	This paper reviews the historic understanding of the predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions, and interprets it in a general framework. On this basis, the existing challenges and unsolved problems in the study of the intrinsic predictability limit (IPL) of weather and climate events of different spatio-temporal scales are summarized. Emphasis is also placed on the structure of the initial error and model parameter errors as well as the associated targeting observation issue. Finally, the predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motion in the ensemble-probabilistic methods widely used in current operational forecasts are discussed. The necessity of considering IPLs in the framework of stochastic dynamic systems is also addressed.
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000413691300006
内容类型	期刊论文
版本	出版稿
源URL	[http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/143043]
专题	海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室
作者单位	1.Fudan Univ, Inst Atmospher Sci, Shanghai 200433, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Earth Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 5.State Ocean Adm, Inst Oceanog 2, Hangzhou 310012, Zhejiang, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mu Mu,Duan WanSuo,Tang YouMin. The predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions: Retrospect and prospects[J]. SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,2017,60(11):2001-2012.
APA	Mu Mu,Duan WanSuo,&Tang YouMin.(2017).The predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions: Retrospect and prospects.SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,60(11),2001-2012.
MLA	Mu Mu,et al."The predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions: Retrospect and prospects".SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES 60.11(2017):2001-2012.