Similarities between Optimal Precursors that Trigger the Onset of Blocking Events and Optimally Growing Initial Errors in Onset Prediction

doi:10.1175/JAS-D-11-037.1

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	Similarities between Optimal Precursors that Trigger the Onset of Blocking Events and Optimally Growing Initial Errors in Onset Prediction
	Mu, Mu 2,3; Jiang, Zhina 1
刊名	JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
	2011-12-01
卷号	68 期号:12 页码:2860-2877
ISSN号	0022-4928
DOI	10.1175/JAS-D-11-037.1
文献子类	Article
英文摘要	A triangular T21, three-level, quasigeostrophic global spectral model was used to investigate how precursors relate to the predictability of blocking onset when a conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach is used. Here the authors focused on links between the optimal precursor to blocking onset and the optimally growing initial error in onset prediction.; A triangular T21, three-level, quasigeostrophic global spectral model was used to investigate how precursors relate to the predictability of blocking onset when a conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach is used. Here the authors focused on links between the optimal precursor to blocking onset and the optimally growing initial error in onset prediction. Numerical results have shown that during the prediction of blocking events, a type-1 optimally growing initial error, which causes an overprediction of blocking onset, bears the greatest resemblance to the optimal precursor, and both are distributed primarily over the blocking and its upstream regions. A type-2 optimally growing initial error is also characterized by a similar pattern, but with the opposite sign. Further analysis reveals that a type-1 optimally growing initial error has a similar growth behavior to that of the optimal precursor, and both develop into a dipole blocking anomaly pattern with a strong positive anomaly in the north and a weak negative anomaly to the south. The evolutionary mechanism of a type-1 optimally growing initial error during blocking onset can be explained in the same manner as that of an optimal precursor triggering blocking onset. This similarity between an optimal precursor and an optimally growing initial error also suggests that targeted observations over sensitive areas may be carried out in advance to eliminate optimally growing errors (as many as possible) in the prediction of blocking onset. Thus, the improved observation network will help to better capture the spatial structure of precursors that trigger blocking onset and will increase the ability to predict blocking events.
学科主题	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
URL标识	查看原文
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000298205400004
公开日期	2012-07-03
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/11606]
专题	海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, State Key Lab Severe Weather, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Wave, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mu, Mu,Jiang, Zhina. Similarities between Optimal Precursors that Trigger the Onset of Blocking Events and Optimally Growing Initial Errors in Onset Prediction[J]. JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,2011,68(12):2860-2877.
APA	Mu, Mu,&Jiang, Zhina.(2011).Similarities between Optimal Precursors that Trigger the Onset of Blocking Events and Optimally Growing Initial Errors in Onset Prediction.JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,68(12),2860-2877.
MLA	Mu, Mu,et al."Similarities between Optimal Precursors that Trigger the Onset of Blocking Events and Optimally Growing Initial Errors in Onset Prediction".JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 68.12(2011):2860-2877.