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题名	基于互补相关理论的塔里木河流域实际蒸散发演变及预估
作者	蹇东南
答辩日期	2017-05-01
文献子类	硕士
授予单位	中国科学院大学
授予地点	新疆乌鲁木齐
导师	苏布达 ; 赵成义
关键词	实际蒸散发 互补相关理论 全球升温 1.5℃和 2℃ CCLM 区域气候模式 塔里木河流域 Actual Evapotranspiration Complementary relationship Global warming Regional climate model COSMO-CLM Tarim River Basin
学位专业	理学硕士
英文摘要	Evapotranspiration, which links atmospheric processes in the climate system, is an important process in the hydrological cycle that contributes to the energy balance of the Earth’s surface. In the current study, daily observed data from 46 meteorological stations in the Tarim River Basin that covered the period from 1961 to 2014 was used. The hydrological data in this study included streamflow from a total of six hydrological stations in the Aksu and Hotan River basin. Annual data were available for the period from 1961 to 2011 for the Aksu River basin and from 1961 to 2000 for the Hotan River basin. Outputs from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) for the Tarim River Basin were used to calculate future actual evapotranspiration. The advection-aridity model was used to calculate actual evapotranspiration to analyzed temporal and spatial variations in actual evapotranspiration and the impact factors of actual evapotranspiration were identified. Moreover, changes in the actual evapotranspiration for global warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C using an advection-aridity model based on outputs from the CCLM regional climate model were examined. The following main conclusions were arrived. The water balance method for closed river basins was used to calculate the annual actual evapotranspiration, and the Penman equation was used to calculate the annual potential evapotranspiration. There was good complementary behavior between actual evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration in the Tarim River Basin. Based on the water balance, parameter α for advection-aridity model was calibrated and α values were between 0.945 and 0.994. The advection-aridity (AA) model was used to calculate actual evapotranspiration at each station to facilitate examination of the temporal and spatial variations in actual evapotranspiration. The multi-year average actual evapotranspiration in the Tarim River Basin was about 212.7 mm. The actual evapotranspiration in the basin showed a significant increasing trendfor the period from 1961 to 1996, and a sharp declining trend for the period from 1996 to 2014. There was an overall significant increasing trendfor the period from 1961 to 2014. An abrupt change in the time series of actual evapotranspiration was detected in 1980. The seasonal actual evapotranspiration showed consistent increases from 1961 until the 2014. Over the analysis period, the seasonally averaged actual evapotranspiration was highest in summer (155.2mm), followed by spring (50.4mm), autumn (26.0mm) and winter (3.1mm). The annual and seasonal values of the actual evapotranspiration were higher in the 1990s and the period from 2000 to 2014, and the actual evapotranspiration was relatively low in the 1960s and 1970s. The actual evapotranspiration values were higher in the northeast, northwest and southwest of the Tarim River Basin than in the central and southeastern areas. In these regions, the annual actual evapotranspiration is mainly greater than 250 mm, the spring actual evapotranspiration is mainly greater than 70 mm, the summer actual evapotranspiration is basically greater than 160 mm, the autumn actual evapotranspiration is basically greater than 40 mm and the winter actual evapotranspiration is greater than 5mm. The actual evapotranspiration values in the desert lands in the central, southwestern and northern Tarim River Basin were relatively low. A large part of this area had an annual actual evapotranspiration of less than or equal to 150 mm. The spring, summer, autumn and winter actual evapotranspiration values were less than 18.4, 40.5, 3.2 and 3mm , respectively. High actual evapotranspiration values were mainly confined to the Weigan, Kashgar, Yarkant, and Hotan River basins, while the ETa values were relative low in the Taklimakan Desert, Keriya and Cheerchen River Basin. The seasonal variations are similar to the annual variations, in that the actual evapotranspiration was increasing in most areas. The Aksu River is the main supply to the Tarim River. We therefore used it as example to assess the correlation between actual evapotranspiration and surface water supply (runoff and precipitation). The surface water supply in the Aksu River Basin increased significantly from 1961 to 2011, and was similar to the trends of actual evapotranspiration the in the Tarim River Basin and the actual evapotranspiration and the surface water supply (runoff and precipitation) are closely correlated. The energy budget (indicated by net radiation) seemed to have a minimal influence on actual evapotranspiration in the Tarim River Basin; however, the advection budget (indicated by dry power of the air) played an important role. It shown that the CCLM can simulate the increasing trend of actual evapotranspiration and average actual evapotranspiration for Tarim River Basin. Comparison of warming at the global and regional scale showed that regional 1.5 °C warming would occur later than the global average, while regional 2 °C warming would occur earlier than the global average. For global warming of 1.5 °C, the average actual evapotranspiration in the Tarim River Basin is about 222.7 mm annually, which represents an increase of 6.9 mm relative to the reference period (1986–2005), with obvious increases projected for spring and summer. The greatest increases in actual evapotranspiration were projected for the northeast and southwest. The increment in the annual actual evapotranspiration across the Tarim River Basin considering a warming of 1.5 °C was 38.4% (4.3 mm) less than that for a warming of 2°C, and the reduction between the two levels of warming was most pronounced in the summer, when actual evapotranspiration was 77.3% (3.4 mm) smaller. The reduction in the increment of annual actual evapotranspiration for warming of 1.5 °C relative to warming of 2 °C was most pronounced in the southwest and northeast, where it was projected to be 43.8% (8.2 mm) and 42.2% (9.3 mm) smaller, respectively. The results of this study are therefore particularly relevant for water resource planning in the Tarim River Basin.
语种	中文
学科主题	自然地理学
内容类型	学位论文
源URL	[http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/14877]
专题	新疆生态与地理研究所_研究系统_荒漠环境研究室
作者单位	中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	蹇东南. 基于互补相关理论的塔里木河流域实际蒸散发演变及预估[D]. 新疆乌鲁木齐. 中国科学院大学. 2017.

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