Monte Carlo sampling for error propagation in linear regression and applications in isochron geochronology

doi:10.1016/j.scib.2018.12.019

CORC > 地质与地球物理研究所 > 中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所 > 岩石圈演化国家重点实验室

	Monte Carlo sampling for error propagation in linear regression and applications in isochron geochronology
	Li, Yang 1,2,3; Zhang, Shuang 3; Hobbs, Richard 2; Caiado, Camila 4; Sproson, Adam D.2,5; Selby, David 2; Rooney, Alan D.3
刊名	SCIENCE BULLETIN
	2019-02-15
卷号	64 期号:3 页码:189-197
关键词	Linear regression Isochron Geochronology Uncertainty propagation Monte Carlo Isoplot
ISSN号	2095-9273
DOI	10.1016/j.scib.2018.12.019
英文摘要	Geochronology is essential for understanding Earth's history. The availability of precise and accurate isotopic data is increasing; hence it is crucial to develop transparent and accessible data reduction techniques and tools to transform raw mass spectrometry data into robust chronological data. Here we present a Monte Carlo sampling approach to fully propagate uncertainties from linear regressions for isochron dating. Our new approach makes no prior assumption about the causes of variability in the derived chronological results and propagates uncertainties from both experimental measurements (analytical uncertainties) and underlying assumptions (model uncertainties) into the final age determination. Using synthetic examples, we find that although the estimates of the slope and y-intercept (hence age and initial isotopic ratios) are comparable between the Monte Carlo method and the benchmark ``Isoplot" algorithm, uncertainties from the later could be underestimated by up to 60%, which are likely due to an incomplete propagation of model uncertainties. An additional advantage of the new method is its ability to integrate with geological information to yield refined chronological constraints. The new method presented here is specifically designed to fully propagate errors in geochronological applications involves linear regressions such as Rb-Sr, Sm-Nd, Re-Os, Pt-Os, Lu-Hf, U-Pb (with discordant points), Pb-Pb and Ar-Ar. (C) 2018 Science China Press. Published by Elsevier B.V. and Science China Press. All rights reserved.
资助项目	State Key Laboratory of Lithospheric Evolution, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences[SKL-K201706] ; Yale University
WOS关键词	CALIBRATION ; AGES ; STANDARDS ; ACCURACY ; OSMIUM
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
WOS记录号	WOS:000460873100008
资助机构	State Key Laboratory of Lithospheric Evolution, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; State Key Laboratory of Lithospheric Evolution, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Yale University ; Yale University ; State Key Laboratory of Lithospheric Evolution, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; State Key Laboratory of Lithospheric Evolution, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Yale University ; Yale University ; State Key Laboratory of Lithospheric Evolution, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; State Key Laboratory of Lithospheric Evolution, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Yale University ; Yale University ; State Key Laboratory of Lithospheric Evolution, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; State Key Laboratory of Lithospheric Evolution, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Yale University ; Yale University
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.iggcas.ac.cn/handle/132A11/90909]
专题	地质与地球物理研究所_岩石圈演化国家重点实验室
通讯作者	Li, Yang
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Lithospher Evolut, Inst Geol & Geophys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 2.Univ Durham, Dept Earth Sci, Durham DH1 3LE, England 3.Yale Univ, Dept Geol & Geophys, POB 6666, New Haven, CT 06511 USA 4.Univ Durham, Dept Math Sci, Durham DH1 3LE, England 5.Univ Tokyo, Atmosphere & Ocean Res Inst, 5-1-5 Kashiwa No Ha, Kashiwa, Chiba 2778564, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Yang,Zhang, Shuang,Hobbs, Richard,et al. Monte Carlo sampling for error propagation in linear regression and applications in isochron geochronology[J]. SCIENCE BULLETIN,2019,64(3):189-197.
APA	Li, Yang.,Zhang, Shuang.,Hobbs, Richard.,Caiado, Camila.,Sproson, Adam D..,...&Rooney, Alan D..(2019).Monte Carlo sampling for error propagation in linear regression and applications in isochron geochronology.SCIENCE BULLETIN,64(3),189-197.
MLA	Li, Yang,et al."Monte Carlo sampling for error propagation in linear regression and applications in isochron geochronology".SCIENCE BULLETIN 64.3(2019):189-197.