Modeling the dynamics of distribution, extent, and NPP of global terrestrial ecosystems in response to future climate change

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.12.007

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	Modeling the dynamics of distribution, extent, and NPP of global terrestrial ecosystems in response to future climate change
	Li, Jianlong 3; Gang, Chengcheng 1,2; Zhang, Yanzhen 3; Wang, Zhaoqi 3; Chen, Yizhao 3; Yang, Yue 3; Cheng, Jimin 1,2; Qi, Jiaguo 4; Odeh, Inakwu 5; Gang, CC (reprint author), Northwest A&F Univ, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, Xinong Rd 26, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China.
刊名	GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE
	2017
卷号	148 页码:153-165
关键词	Comprehensive And Sequential Classification System (Cscs) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (Cmip5) Representative Concentration Pathways (Rcps) Multi-model Ensemble (Mme) Net Primary Productivity (Npp) Terrestrial Ecosystems
ISSN号	0921-8181
DOI	10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.12.007
文献子类	Article
英文摘要	Understanding how terrestrial ecosystems would respond to future climate change can substantially contribute to scientific evaluation of the interactions between vegetation and climate. To reveal the future climate impacts might on the nature and magnitude of global vegetation, the spatiotemporal distribution and net primary productivity (NPP) of global terrestrial biomes and their dynamics in this century were quantitatively simulated and compared by using the improved Comprehensive and Sequential Classification System and the segmentation model. The 33 general circulation models under the four scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were utilized to simulate the future climate change. The multi-model ensemble results showed that at the global scale, the distribution of forests and deserts would expand by more than 2% and 4% over this century, respectively. By contrast, more than 11% of grassland regions would shrink. Despite the considerable differences in the simulated responses of the biomes, the poleward movement or expansion of temperate forest were prominent features across all the scenarios. Meanwhile, the terrestrial NPP was projected to increase by 7.44, 9.51, 9.46, and 12.02 Pg DW. a(-1) in 2070s relative to 1970s in the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, respectively. The largest NPP decrease would occur in tundra & alpine steppe. NPP in the Tropical Zone, the North Temperate Zone, and the North Frigid Zone was estimated to increase in this century, whereas NPP in the South Temperate Zone was projected to decrease slightly across all scenarios. Overall, ecosystems in the mid-/high latitudes would be more vulnerable to future climate change in terms of distribution ranges and primary productivity despite the existing uncertainties. Some vegetation would benefit from the warmer and wetter climate. However, most of these plants would suffer and experience irreversible changes, particularly in the northern hemisphere. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
学科主题	Physical Geography ; Geology
URL标识	查看原文
出版地	AMSTERDAM
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
WOS记录号	WOS:000393528200014
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China [31602004]; National Key Research and Development Program of China [2016YFC0501707]; Key cultivation project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (The promotion and management of ecosystem functions of restored vegetation in Loess Plateau, China); Special Foundation for State Basic Research Program of China [2014YF210100]; Doctoral Start-up Fund of Northwest AF University [2452015339] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China [31602004]; National Key Research and Development Program of China [2016YFC0501707]; Key cultivation project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (The promotion and management of ecosystem functions of restored vegetation in Loess Plateau, China); Special Foundation for State Basic Research Program of China [2014YF210100]; Doctoral Start-up Fund of Northwest AF University [2452015339] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China [31602004]; National Key Research and Development Program of China [2016YFC0501707]; Key cultivation project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (The promotion and management of ecosystem functions of restored vegetation in Loess Plateau, China); Special Foundation for State Basic Research Program of China [2014YF210100]; Doctoral Start-up Fund of Northwest AF University [2452015339] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China [31602004]; National Key Research and Development Program of China [2016YFC0501707]; Key cultivation project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (The promotion and management of ecosystem functions of restored vegetation in Loess Plateau, China); Special Foundation for State Basic Research Program of China [2014YF210100]; Doctoral Start-up Fund of Northwest AF University [2452015339]
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.iswc.ac.cn/handle/361005/8070]
专题	水保所科研产出--SCI_2017--SCI
通讯作者	Gang, CC (reprint author), Northwest A&F Univ, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, Xinong Rd 26, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China.
作者单位	1.Northwest A&F Univ, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, Xinong Rd 26, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci & Minist Water Resources, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 3.Nanjing Univ, Global Change Res Inst, Sch Life Sci, Nanjing 210093, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 4.Michigan State Univ, Ctr Global Change & Earth Observat, E Lansing, MI 48823 USA 5.Univ Sydney, Fac Agr & Environm, Dept Environm Sci, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Jianlong,Gang, Chengcheng,Zhang, Yanzhen,et al. Modeling the dynamics of distribution, extent, and NPP of global terrestrial ecosystems in response to future climate change[J]. GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE,2017,148:153-165.
APA	Li, Jianlong.,Gang, Chengcheng.,Zhang, Yanzhen.,Wang, Zhaoqi.,Chen, Yizhao.,...&Gang, CC .(2017).Modeling the dynamics of distribution, extent, and NPP of global terrestrial ecosystems in response to future climate change.GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE,148,153-165.
MLA	Li, Jianlong,et al."Modeling the dynamics of distribution, extent, and NPP of global terrestrial ecosystems in response to future climate change".GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE 148(2017):153-165.