Projecting the Range Shifts in Climatically Suitable Habitat for Chinese Sea Buckthorn under Climate Change Scenarios

doi:10.3390/f9010009

CORC > 水土保持研究所 > 中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所 > 水保所科研产出--SCI > 2018--SCI

	Projecting the Range Shifts in Climatically Suitable Habitat for Chinese Sea Buckthorn under Climate Change Scenarios
	Li, Guoqing 2; Huang, Jinghua 2; Li, Jie 1; Zhang, Xiaoqin2,3 ; Yan, Meijie 2; Du, Sheng 2; Li, GQ (reprint author), Northwest A&F Univ, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dryland Farming Loess P, Yangling 712100, Peoples R China.
刊名	FORESTS
	2018
卷号	9 期号:1
关键词	Chinese Sea Buckthorn Climatic Change Potential Distribution Range Expansion Ecological Niche
ISSN号	1999-4907
DOI	10.3390/f9010009
文献子类	Article
英文摘要	Understanding the impact of climate change on range shifts in climatically suitable habitats of tree species is important for national afforestation planning, which can enhance the adaptation of tree plantation to climate change through movement of tree to follow suitable climatic conditions. Here, we overlap the current and future climate-related ranges of Chinese sea buckthorn (Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. sinensis), an important tree used for afforestation in China, to estimate the range shift in three geographic dimensions (latitude, longitude and elevation) between 2000 and 2070, which are projected by the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) under current climate conditions and four climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). Our results show that the performance of the MaxEnt is highly accurate, with test AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) value of 0.91, Kappa value of 0.83 and predicted accuracy of 92%. About 10.7% area of land in China is climatically suitable for Chinese sea buckthorn plantation. Low representative concentration paths will have more effect on loss of climatic range and less effect on expansion of climatic range for Chinese sea buckthorn, while the impacts of high representative concentration path is the opposite. The centroids of climatic ranges will shift westward or northwestward at the rate of 10.4-22 km per decade, and the centroids of altitude will shift upward at the rate of 43-128 m per decade. The expansion area of climatically suitable habitat, covering 2.6-5.2 x 10(5) km(2), is expected to be mainly located in parts of Qinghai, Ningxia, Gansu, Sichuan, Liaoning, and Jilin provinces; these areas should be monitored for planting of Chinese sea buckthorn in the future.
学科主题	Forestry
出版地	ST ALBAN-ANLAGE 66, CH-4052 BASEL, SWITZERLAND
语种	英语
出版者	MDPI AG
WOS记录号	WOS:000424115000009
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.iswc.ac.cn/handle/361005/7853]
专题	水保所科研产出--SCI_2018--SCI
通讯作者	Li, GQ (reprint author), Northwest A&F Univ, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dryland Farming Loess P, Yangling 712100, Peoples R China.
作者单位	1.Northwest A&F Univ, Coll Forestry, Yangling 712100, Peoples R China 2.Northwest A&F Univ, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dryland Farming Loess P, Yangling 712100, Peoples R China 3.Heze Univ, Coll Landscape Engn, Heze 274015, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Guoqing,Huang, Jinghua,Li, Jie,et al. Projecting the Range Shifts in Climatically Suitable Habitat for Chinese Sea Buckthorn under Climate Change Scenarios[J]. FORESTS,2018,9(1).
APA	Li, Guoqing.,Huang, Jinghua.,Li, Jie.,Zhang, Xiaoqin.,Yan, Meijie.,...&Li, GQ .(2018).Projecting the Range Shifts in Climatically Suitable Habitat for Chinese Sea Buckthorn under Climate Change Scenarios.FORESTS,9(1).
MLA	Li, Guoqing,et al."Projecting the Range Shifts in Climatically Suitable Habitat for Chinese Sea Buckthorn under Climate Change Scenarios".FORESTS 9.1(2018).