A multi-granularity combined prediction model based on fuzzy trend forecasting and particle swarm techniques
Deng, Weihui; Wang, Guoyin; Zhang, Xuerui; Xu, Ji; Li, Guangdi
刊名NEUROCOMPUTING
2016-01-15
卷号173页码:1671-1682
关键词Fuzzy Time Series Multi-granularity Combined Prediction Model Fuzzy Trend Forecasting Granular Space Particle Swarm Techniques
ISSN号0925-2312
DOI10.1016/j.neucom.2015.09.040
英文摘要

In spite of the impressive diversity of multi-factors fuzzy time series models, there is still a burning need to develop models that can handle the uncertainty inherent in certain data with some certain methods and obtain high forecasting accuracy. This paper proposes a novel multi-granularity combined prediction model for multi-factors fuzzy time series forecasting. The proposed model utilizes the clustering algorithm to generate different lengths of intervals, and forecasts the fuzzy trend in different granular spaces. It calculates the final forecasted value by using the forecasted fuzzy trend in each granular space and the optimal weighting vector obtained by particle swarm techniques. The proposed model can transform the uncertain problem to a certain problem through the granular computing theory. The experiments show that the presented model can not only obtain higher forecasting accuracy than several existing methods to forecast the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) and the civilian unemployment rate, but also capture and interpret the fuzzy trend. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

资助项目National Science and Technology Major Project[2014ZX07104-006]
WOS研究方向Computer Science
语种英语
出版者ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
WOS记录号WOS:000366879800119
内容类型期刊论文
源URL[http://119.78.100.138/handle/2HOD01W0/2118]  
专题大数据挖掘及应用中心
作者单位Chinese Acad Sci, Chongqing Inst Green & Intelligent Technol, Chongqing 400714, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Deng, Weihui,Wang, Guoyin,Zhang, Xuerui,et al. A multi-granularity combined prediction model based on fuzzy trend forecasting and particle swarm techniques[J]. NEUROCOMPUTING,2016,173:1671-1682.
APA Deng, Weihui,Wang, Guoyin,Zhang, Xuerui,Xu, Ji,&Li, Guangdi.(2016).A multi-granularity combined prediction model based on fuzzy trend forecasting and particle swarm techniques.NEUROCOMPUTING,173,1671-1682.
MLA Deng, Weihui,et al."A multi-granularity combined prediction model based on fuzzy trend forecasting and particle swarm techniques".NEUROCOMPUTING 173(2016):1671-1682.
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