Spatially downscaling GCMs outputs to project changes in extreme precipitation and temperature events on the Loess Plateau of China during the 21st Century

CORC > 烟台海岸带研究所 > 中国科学院烟台海岸带研究所 > 中科院海岸带环境过程与生态修复重点实验室 > 滨海湿地实验室

	Spatially downscaling GCMs outputs to project changes in extreme precipitation and temperature events on the Loess Plateau of China during the 21st Century
	Li, Zhi 1,2; Zheng, Fen-Li 3,4; Liu, Wen-Zhao 3,4; Jiang, De-Juan5
刊名	GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE
	2012-02-01
卷号	82-83 期号:.页码:65-73
关键词	Climate Change Extreme Temperature Events Loess Plateau Spatial Downscaling
ISSN号	0921-8181
通讯作者	Li, Z (reprint author), NW A&F Univ, Coll Resources & Environm, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China. lizhibox@126.com
产权排序	[Li, Zhi] NW A&F Univ, Coll Resources & Environm, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China; [Li, Zhi] NW A&F Univ, Inst Water Saving Agr Arid Areas China, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China; [Zheng, Fen-Li; Liu, Wen-Zhao] CAS, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China; [Zheng, Fen-Li; Liu, Wen-Zhao] MWR, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China; [Jiang, De-Juan] Chinese Acad Sci, Yantai Inst Coastal Zone Res, Yantai 264003, Peoples R China
文献子类	Article
英文摘要	A simple transfer function method is used to spatially downscale extreme precipitation and temperature indices of six GCMs (CNRM-CM3, GFDL-CM2.1, INM-CM3.0, IPSL-CM4, MIROC3.2_M and NCAR-PCM) under three emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) from grid outputs to target station to project their potential spatiotemporal changes on the Loess Plateau of China during the 21st century. GCMs project that extreme climate events will keep the present change trend, i.e. longer heatwave duration and growing season length, less cold extremes, smaller annual extreme temperature range, more frequent and intense precipitation, and longer drought duration; and climate models suggest that the changes during the 21st century are a further amplification of those at present. Spatial variations exist in the changes of extreme indices, the greatest changes will occur in the southeast and northwest region for extreme precipitation indices while in the north and southeast region for extreme temperature events. The projected changes in extreme climate will possibly bring great impacts on the soil losses and agriculture on the Loess Plateau and countermeasures should be planned.; A simple transfer function method is used to spatially downscale extreme precipitation and temperature indices of six GCMs (CNRM-CM3, GFDL-CM2.1, INM-CM3.0, IPSL-CM4, MIROC3.2_M and NCAR-PCM) under three emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) from grid outputs to target station to project their potential spatiotemporal changes on the Loess Plateau of China during the 21st century. GCMs project that extreme climate events will keep the present change trend, i.e. longer heatwave duration and growing season length, less cold extremes, smaller annual extreme temperature range, more frequent and intense precipitation, and longer drought duration; and climate models suggest that the changes during the 21st century are a further amplification of those at present. Spatial variations exist in the changes of extreme indices, the greatest changes will occur in the southeast and northwest region for extreme precipitation indices while in the north and southeast region for extreme temperature events. The projected changes in extreme climate will possibly bring great impacts on the soil losses and agriculture on the Loess Plateau and countermeasures should be planned. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
学科主题	Physical Geography ; Geology
URL标识	查看原文
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACT ; RIVER-BASIN ; SOIL-EROSION ; MODEL OUTPUT ; VARIABILITY ; UNCERTAINTIES ; 20TH-CENTURY ; SIMULATIONS ; HYDROLOGY ; VARIABLES
WOS研究方向	Physical Geography ; Geology
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000300922000006
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41101022, 51179161]; National Science & Technology Supporting Plan[2006BAD09B09]
公开日期	2012-06-13
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.yic.ac.cn/handle/133337/5482]
专题	烟台海岸带研究所_滨海湿地实验室
作者单位	1.NW A&F Univ, Coll Resources & Environm, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 2.NW A&F Univ, Inst Water Saving Agr Arid Areas China, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 4.MWR, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Yantai Inst Coastal Zone Res, Yantai 264003, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Zhi,Zheng, Fen-Li,Liu, Wen-Zhao,et al. Spatially downscaling GCMs outputs to project changes in extreme precipitation and temperature events on the Loess Plateau of China during the 21st Century[J]. GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE,2012,82-83(.):65-73.
APA	Li, Zhi,Zheng, Fen-Li,Liu, Wen-Zhao,&Jiang, De-Juan.(2012).Spatially downscaling GCMs outputs to project changes in extreme precipitation and temperature events on the Loess Plateau of China during the 21st Century.GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE,82-83(.),65-73.
MLA	Li, Zhi,et al."Spatially downscaling GCMs outputs to project changes in extreme precipitation and temperature events on the Loess Plateau of China during the 21st Century".GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE 82-83..(2012):65-73.