A modeling study of human infections with avian influenza A H7N9 virus in mainland China

doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2015.11.003

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	A modeling study of human infections with avian influenza A H7N9 virus in mainland China
	Liu, ZF; Fang, CT; Fang, CT (reprint author), Natl Taiwan Univ, Coll Publ Hlth, Inst Epidemiol & Prevent Med, 17 Xu Zhou Rd, Taipei 100, Taiwan.
刊名	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES
	2015-12
卷号	41 页码:73-78
关键词	H7N9 Dynamic model Trend Interventions
ISSN号	1201-9712
DOI	10.1016/j.ijid.2015.11.003
文献子类	Article
英文摘要	Objectives: Since February 2013, more than 400 laboratory-confirmed human cases of avian influenza A H7N9 infection have been reported in mainland China. Little is known of the dynamics of this novel virus in poultry and human populations, which is essential for developing effective long-term control strategies for this zoonosis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of screening and culling of infected poultry on the evolution of the H7N9 epidemic. Methods: A mathematical model for transmission dynamics of avian influenza A H7N9 virus in human and poultry populations was constructed. Parameters in the model were estimated using publicly available nationwide surveillance data on animal and human infections. Results: By fitting a two-host model, it was shown that screening for H7N9 in poultry and culling could effectively decrease the number of new human H7N9 cases. Furthermore, the elimination of circulating H7N9 virus is possible if an intensive, but technically feasible, poultry screening and culling policy is adopted. Conclusions: Screening and culling infected poultry is a critical measure for preventing human H7N9 infections in the long term. This model may provide important insights for decision-making on a national intervention strategy for the long-term control of the H7N9 virus epidemic. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.
学科主题	Infectious Diseases
出版地	OXFORD
项目编号	Infectious Diseases Research and Education Center ; Ministry of Health and Welfare ; National Taiwan University
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000368040100016
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/179618]
专题	公共卫生学院_期刊论文
通讯作者	Fang, CT (reprint author), Natl Taiwan Univ, Coll Publ Hlth, Inst Epidemiol & Prevent Med, 17 Xu Zhou Rd, Taipei 100, Taiwan.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, ZF,Fang, CT,Fang, CT . A modeling study of human infections with avian influenza A H7N9 virus in mainland China[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES,2015,41:73-78.
APA	Liu, ZF,Fang, CT,&Fang, CT .(2015).A modeling study of human infections with avian influenza A H7N9 virus in mainland China.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES,41,73-78.
MLA	Liu, ZF,et al."A modeling study of human infections with avian influenza A H7N9 virus in mainland China".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES 41(2015):73-78.