我国水稻对气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性

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	我国水稻对气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性
	杨修; 孙芳; 林而达; 居辉; 熊伟
刊名	自然灾害学报
	2004
卷号	13 期号:5 页码:85-89
关键词	水稻气候变化敏感性脆弱性
ISSN号	1004-4574
其他题名	Sensitivity and vulnerability of rice to climate change in China
英文摘要	采用PRECIS模型输出的B2气候情景,结合CERES-Rice作物模型数据,依据产量的变化率和GIS技术对我国未来(21世纪70年代)水稻的气候变化敏感性和脆弱性进行了研究.结果表明:受气候变化影响,未来我国绝大部分地区的雨养水稻将会减产,仅个别地区有增产趋势.负敏感区(减产区)主要集中在东北的辽宁和赤峰、华北平原大部、江淮及东南沿海地区;而在黑龙江西南部、福建大部、陕西与四川交界地区的雨养水稻有增产趋势.我国的灌溉水稻也以减产为主,负敏感区主要集中在辽宁、吉林西部、华北地区、陕西、宁夏、新疆南部、淮河流域、长江中下游及其以南广大水稻主产区;增产区主要集中在黑龙江西南部、内蒙古东部地区及陕西与湖北交界等地.未来我国雨养水稻的脆弱区主要分布在:(1)东北地区的中南部;(2)山东北部及淮河流域;(3)南部沿海和海南岛;(4)西南地区.未来我国灌溉水稻的脆弱区面积较大,主要分布在辽宁、黄河中游和下游、新疆南部及广西大部地区.; using B2 climate scenario produced by model PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts stud-ies) and the rice yield data from model CERES-Rice, the sensitivity and vulnerability of rice to future climate change in China were studied based on the yield variation and GIS techniques. Results showed that due to the im-pacts of climate change, the yield of rain-fed rice in most parts of China will decrease by 2070' s, and only in a few areas there will be a yield increase. Negatively sensitive areas of rain-fed rice will be distributed in Liaoning Prov-ince, Chifeng City, the North China Plain, the regions along Yangtze River & Huaihe River, and southeastern coastal areas. Yield increase areas will be distributed in southwestern Heilongjiang, Fujian, and transition region of Shaanxi & Sichuan Province. For irrigated rice, the distribution of negatively sensitive areas will lie in Jilin Prov-ince, North China, Shaanxi, Ningxia, southern Xinjiang, Huaihe River drainage areas, the region of middle & low-er reaches of the Yangtze River and its south. The southern regions of Heilongjiang Province, the eastern regions of Inner Mongolian, and the transition region of Shaanxi & Hubei Province will be the positively sensitive areas. The vulnerable area will account for about 1/3 of the sown area. The vulnerable areas will be mainly distributed in: (1) the middle and southern parts of Northeast China; (2) northeastern Shandong and the Huaihe River basin; (3) the southeastern coastal area and Hainan Island;and (4) Southwest China. For irrigated rice, the vulnerable area is bigger. The vulnerable regions are mainly distributed in Liaoning Province, the region of middle & lower reaches of the Yellow River, southern Xinjiang and most parts of Guangxi Province.
学科主题	园艺
语种	中文
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://111.203.20.206/handle/2HMLN22E/17581]
专题	农业环境与可持续发展研究所_气候变化研究室
作者单位	中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所, 北京, 100081
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	杨修,孙芳,林而达,等. 我国水稻对气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性[J]. 自然灾害学报,2004,13(5):85-89.
APA	杨修,孙芳,林而达,居辉,&熊伟.(2004).我国水稻对气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性.自然灾害学报,13(5),85-89.
MLA	杨修,et al."我国水稻对气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性".自然灾害学报 13.5(2004):85-89.