Forewarning of sustainable utilization of regional water resources: a model based on BP neural network and set pair analysis

CORC > 科技战略咨询研究院 > 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 > 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所(1985年6月-2016年1月19日)

	Forewarning of sustainable utilization of regional water resources: a model based on BP neural network and set pair analysis
	Jin, JL ; Wei, YM ; Zou, LL ; Liu, L ; Zhang, WW ; Zhou, YL
刊名	NATURAL HAZARDS
	2012
卷号	62 期号:1 页码:13,115-127
关键词	Water security management Water resources sustainable utilization Forewarning model Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process Back-propagation neural network Set pair analysis Genetic algorithm
ISSN号	0921-030X
中文摘要	Early warning for sustainable utilization of regional water resources is an important control measure for regional water security management. To establish operable and quantitative forewarning model, in this paper, a new forewarning model for sustainable utilization of water resources based on BP neural network and set pair analysis (named BPSPA-FM for short) was established. In the proposed approach, the accelerating genetic algorithm-based fuzzy analytic hierarchy process was suggested to determine the weights of evaluation indexes, back-propagation neural network updating model was used to predict the values of the evaluation indexes, and the set pair analysis was used to determine the function values of relative membership in variable fuzzy set of the samples. BPSPA-FM was applied to early warning for sustainable utilization of regional water resources of Yuanyang Hani terrace in Yunnan Province of China. The results show that the states of sustainable utilization in this system were near the critical value between nonalarm and slight alarm from 1990 to 2000, the states of the system fell into slight alarm and were rapidly close to intermediate alarm from 2001 to 2004, and the states of the system were predicted to be near the critical value between slight alarm and intermediate alarm from 2005 to 2010. The main alarm indexes of the system were utilization ratio of water in agriculture, control ratio of surface water, per capita water supply, per unit area irrigation water and per capita water consumption. BPSPA-FM can take full advantage of the changing information of the evaluation indexes in adjacent periods and the relationship between the samples and the criterion grades. The results of BPSPA-FM are reasonable with high accuracy. BPSPA-FM is general and can be applied to early warning problems of different natural hazards systems such as drought disaster.
学科主题	Geosciences ; Multidisciplinary; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences; Water Resources
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000302408500011
公开日期	2012-11-12
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.casipm.ac.cn/handle/190111/4235]
专题	科技战略咨询研究院_中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所(1985年6月-2015年12月)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jin, JL,Wei, YM,Zou, LL,et al. Forewarning of sustainable utilization of regional water resources: a model based on BP neural network and set pair analysis[J]. NATURAL HAZARDS,2012,62(1):13,115-127.
APA	Jin, JL,Wei, YM,Zou, LL,Liu, L,Zhang, WW,&Zhou, YL.(2012).Forewarning of sustainable utilization of regional water resources: a model based on BP neural network and set pair analysis.NATURAL HAZARDS,62(1),13,115-127.
MLA	Jin, JL,et al."Forewarning of sustainable utilization of regional water resources: a model based on BP neural network and set pair analysis".NATURAL HAZARDS 62.1(2012):13,115-127.