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	汇率调整之谜:基于产业内贸易的新解释; The Puzzle of Foreign Exchange Rate Adjustment:An Intra-Industrial Trade Perspective
	陈国进 ; 陈创练 ; 陈娟
	2011-05
关键词	产业内贸易 贸易成本 第三方效应 马歇尔—勒纳条件 intra-industrial trade trade costs third-party effect Marshall-Lerner conditions
英文摘要	在符合马歇尔—勒纳条件下,汇率调整可以平衡贸易差额的经典理论在实证上并没有得到很好的支持,学术界称之为"汇率调整"之谜。产业内贸易可以为"汇率调整之谜"提供新的解释,忽视产业内贸易对出口汇率弹性的影响是该谜题出现的重要原因。在理论分析基础上建立的实证模型,通过面板协整方法,可我国与包括美国、欧盟等36个国家和地区的出口贸易数据和分行业出口贸易进行检验。研究结果表明,不管是总体数据还是分行业数据,产业内贸易的存在均减弱了我国出口的汇率弹性效应,对于出口总体数据而言,其数值下降的幅度大约为九个百分点。由此可见,忽略产业内贸易的传统理论高估了汇率对出口贸易、国际收支的调节作用。The classical theory that exchange rate adjustment can affect trade balance under the Marshall-Lerner conditions has not been adequately supported by empirical evidence，and this is well-known as“the puzzle of foreign exchange adjustment”． This paper argues that intra-industrial trade may provide a new perspective on this puzzle，and that failure to pay due attention to the influence of intra-industrial trade on exchange rate elasticity for exports is a major factor in the root of this puzzle． An empirical model，established on the basis of theoretical analysis，has been applied through the panel co-integration method to test the data of Chinese exports to 36 countries and regions ( including the USA and the EU) and the data of trade broken down by industry between 1995 and 2009． Our findings show that，for both the total volume of Chinese exports and the volume of trade broken down by industry，intra-industrial trade weakens the effect of foreign exchange elasticity of our country’s exports，and that the total volume of exports dropped by approximately 9%． It is therefore concluded that the traditional theory which overlooks intra-industrial trade overestimates the effect of exchange rate adjustment on exports and international balance of payments．; 国家自然科学基金重点项目“面板数据建模的理论与方法”(71131008);国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国股市投机性泡沫识别和投资者乘骑泡沫行为研究”(71071132);教育部人文社科规划项目“缓解储备理论与我国城乡居民消费结构的演进”(09YJA790118);教育部首届“博士研究生学术新人奖”和厦门大学优秀博士学位论文培育工程配套项目“汇率调整之谜和我国经常账户失衡研究:微观基础与动态效应”(ZX11b1);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(厦门大学基础创新科研基金)“科学实验方法与经济学的结合与拓展:拍卖、市场均衡和混合博弈中的人类行为异质性研究”(201122G011);广东省哲学社会科学“十一五”规划项目“权证定价理论及其在中国资本市场的应用研究”(08GE-10)
语种	中文
出版者	厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版)编辑部
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://dspace.xmu.edu.cn/handle/2288/14198]
专题	经济学院－已发表论文
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	陈国进,陈创练,陈娟. 汇率调整之谜:基于产业内贸易的新解释, The Puzzle of Foreign Exchange Rate Adjustment:An Intra-Industrial Trade Perspective[J],2011.
APA	陈国进,陈创练,&陈娟.(2011).汇率调整之谜:基于产业内贸易的新解释..
MLA	陈国进,et al."汇率调整之谜:基于产业内贸易的新解释".(2011).

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