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	小概率权重问题及其市场应用
	陈荣 ; 何枫 ; CHEN Rong ; HE Feng
	2010-05-14 ; 2010-05-14
关键词	小概率 权重高估 选择 促销 small probability, overweighting, choice, promotion. F717 F224
其他题名	Weighting of Small Probabilities and Its Market Applications
中文摘要	探讨了决策制定中有关"小概率权重"的理论问题和市场应用问题。若干实验结果表明概率的权重大小不是绝对的,而是背景依赖的,在决策问题中价值对比降低或不存在时,小概率事件权重不太可能被高估。然而,对小概率的权重也会因决策人所处的目前状况有关,个体在财富状况等方面的差异会对小概率事件的赋权产生影响。实验结果还证明有关小概率权重问题的理论发现对彩票价格制定、保险费用确定以及选择有效的有奖促销策略具有重要的启示。; This paper investigates the conditions under which the phenomenon of "overweighting of small probabilities" is less likely to occur and their implications with regard to certain business and marketing issues. Based on recent findings in behavioral economics, the authors demonstrated that when the difference in outcome values reduces, disappears, or is no longer apparent, an alternative with a small probability is less likely to be overweighed. Further, the authors suggested a "status quo" effect in the weighting of a small probability with reference to people's wealth. By applying the theoretical results to a promotional context, the authors found that using a promotional incentive that offers a small chance of winning a large amount is more effective for high-priced products than for low-priced products. To test the hypotheses, three experimental studies using student subjects were performed sequentially. Each experiment had specific objectives and involved the use of a factorial design. In line with previous findings, Study 1 indicated that as the associated payoff sizes increase in choice problems, the overweighting of small probabilities tends to diminish.More importantly, when no value comparison is presented, the overweighting of small probabilities is less likely to occur. Moreover, it showed that there is a preference discrepancy between choice and matching and that the weighting of probabilities is more consistent in the matching context than in the choice context.In Study 2, the above findings were employed in issues related to lotteries and insurance pricing. The study demonstrated that consumers are more reluctant to buy a lottery or air insurance at a higher price, even if the expected payoff increases accordingly. Moreover, at the same price, the wealthier group of people is more willing to accept the lottery or insurance. Study 3 was a mixed experimental design involving eight products in four categories. In all four categories, the results showed that sweepstakes are more effective than premiumsin selling high-priced products;however, there is no significant difference between these two schemes when selling low-priced products. The findings systematically demonstrated that the "overweighting of small probabilities"is context dependent. The research provides incremental evidence for the contingent weighting model and consumer preference reversals. From the perspective of a behavioral researcher, given the different levels of outcomes, coupled with the uncertainty of how small probabilities should be interpreted, the results can be explained by differential attention and information processing. From the perspective of a decision theorist, the results reflect a strong boundary condition that contradicts the commonly held belief that probabilities and values are independent of each other. Finally, the findings have important managerial implications in successful pricing and promotional design.
语种	中文 ; 中文
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/33198]
专题	清华大学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	陈荣,何枫,CHEN Rong,等. 小概率权重问题及其市场应用[J],2010, 2010.
APA	陈荣,何枫,CHEN Rong,&HE Feng.(2010).小概率权重问题及其市场应用..
MLA	陈荣,et al."小概率权重问题及其市场应用".(2010).

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