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	Urban residential electricity consumption forecast model
	Song Wei ; Gu A-lun ; Wu Zong-xin
	2010-05-10 ; 2010-05-10
关键词	Economic Practical/ econometrics load forecasting power consumption power system economics pricing/ residential electricity consumption electricity consumption forecast model economic structure residential living electricity demand statistical data urban electricity price econometric equation short-term fluctuation error correction model/ B8110D Power system planning and layout B8110B Power system management, operation and economics
中文摘要	With the development of economy and adjustment of economic structure in China, the proportion of the residential electricity consumption in total electricity consumption is increasing gradually. In order to analyze the future of residential living electricity demand quantitatively, based on the statistical data, urban residential per capita income, urban electricity price and last year urban residential per capita electricity consumption were regarded as explanatory variables, and econometric equation of urban residential electricity consumption was established. This model determines the theory and quantity relationship between electricity consumption and factors that have impacts on electricity consumption. In order to improve the forecast precision and disclose short-term fluctuation, error correction model was given subsequently. The forecast results of electricity consumption in 2004 and 2005 show the urban residential electricity consumption will grow at the rate of 5% annually in the future.
语种	中文 ; 中文
出版者	State Power Corp. of China ; China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/22463]
专题	清华大学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Song Wei,Gu A-lun,Wu Zong-xin. Urban residential electricity consumption forecast model[J],2010, 2010.
APA	Song Wei,Gu A-lun,&Wu Zong-xin.(2010).Urban residential electricity consumption forecast model..
MLA	Song Wei,et al."Urban residential electricity consumption forecast model".(2010).

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