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	Short-term rainfall probability and peak moment prediction of strong convective weather using FY satellite data in south china a case study of shenzhen
	Kai Chen; Jun Liu; Shanxin Guo; Jinsong Chen
	2016
会议名称	ISPRS Congress
会议地点	捷克布拉格
英文摘要	Short-term precipitation commonly occurs in south part of China, which brings intensive precipitation in local region for very short time. Massive water would cause the intensive flood inside of city when precipitation amount beyond the capacity of city drainage system. Thousands people’s life could be influenced by those short-term disasters and the higher city managements are required to facing these challenges. How to predict the occurrence of heavy precipitation accurately is one of the worthwhile scientific questions in meteorology. According to recent studies, the accuracy of short-term precipitation prediction based on numerical simulation model still remains low reliability, in some area where lack of local observations, the accuracy may be as low as 10%. The methodology for short term precipitation occurrence prediction still remains a challenge. In this paper, a machine learning method based on SVM was presented to predict short-term precipitation occurrence by using FY2-G satellite imagery and ground in situ observation data. The results were validated by traditional TS score which commonly used in evaluation of weather prediction. The results indicate that the proposed algorithm can present overall accuracy up to 90% for one-hour to six-hour forecast. The result implies the prediction accuracy could be improved by using machine learning method combining with satellite image. This prediction model can be further used to evaluated to predicted other characteristics of weather in Shenzhen in future.
收录类别	EI
语种	英语
内容类型	会议论文
源URL	[http://ir.siat.ac.cn:8080/handle/172644/10296]
专题	深圳先进技术研究院_数字所
作者单位	2016
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kai Chen,Jun Liu,Shanxin Guo,et al. Short-term rainfall probability and peak moment prediction of strong convective weather using FY satellite data in south china a case study of shenzhen[C]. 见:ISPRS Congress. 捷克布拉格.

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