A Robust but Spurious Pattern of Climate Change in Model Projections over the Tropical Indian Ocean

CORC > 南海海洋研究所 > 中国科学院南海海洋研究所 > 热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(LTO)

	A Robust but Spurious Pattern of Climate Change in Model Projections over the Tropical Indian Ocean
	Li, Gen; Xie, Shang-Ping; Du, Yan
刊名	JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
	2016
卷号	29 期号:15 页码:5589-5608
通讯作者	Li, G (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, South China Sea Inst Oceanol, State Key Lab Trop Oceanog, 164 West Xingang Rd, Guangzhou 510301, Guangdong, Peoples R China.
中文摘要	Climate models consistently project reduced surface warming over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (IO) under increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. This IO dipole (IOD)-like warming pattern, regarded as robust based on consistency among models by the new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, results in a large increase in the frequency of extreme positive IOD (pIOD) events, elevating the risk of climate and weather disasters in the future over IO rim countries. These projections, however, do not consider large model biases in both the mean state and interannual IOD variance. In particular, a "present-future relationship" is identified between the historical simulations and representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 experiments from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble: models with an excessive IOD amplitude bias tend to project a strong IOD-like warming pattern in themean and a large increase in extreme pIOD occurrences under increased GHG forcing. This relationship links the present simulation errors to future climate projections, and is also consistent with our understanding of Bjerknes ocean-atmosphere feedback. This study calibrates regional climate projections by using this present-future relationship and observed IOD amplitude. The results show that the projected IOD-like pattern of mean changes and frequency increase of extreme pIOD events are largely artifacts of model errors and unlikely to emerge in the future. These results illustrate that a robust projection may still be biased and it is important to consider the model bias effect.
学科主题	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.scsio.ac.cn/handle/344004/15342]
专题	南海海洋研究所_热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(LTO)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Gen,Xie, Shang-Ping,Du, Yan. A Robust but Spurious Pattern of Climate Change in Model Projections over the Tropical Indian Ocean[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2016,29(15):5589-5608.
APA	Li, Gen,Xie, Shang-Ping,&Du, Yan.(2016).A Robust but Spurious Pattern of Climate Change in Model Projections over the Tropical Indian Ocean.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,29(15),5589-5608.
MLA	Li, Gen,et al."A Robust but Spurious Pattern of Climate Change in Model Projections over the Tropical Indian Ocean".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 29.15(2016):5589-5608.