Characterizing CMIP5 model spread in simulated rainfall in the Pacific Intertropical Convergence and South Pacific Convergence Zones

CORC > 南海海洋研究所 > 中国科学院南海海洋研究所 > 热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(LTO)

	Characterizing CMIP5 model spread in simulated rainfall in the Pacific Intertropical Convergence and South Pacific Convergence Zones
	Lintner, Benjamin R.; Langenbrunner, Baird; Neelin, J. David; Anderson, Bruce T.; Niznik, Matthew J.; Li, Gen; Xie, Shang-Ping
刊名	JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
	2016
卷号	121 期号:19 页码:11590-11607
关键词	CMIP5 models precipitation tropical Pacific ITCZ SPCZ principal uncertainty patterns
通讯作者	Lintner, BR (reprint author), Rutgers State Univ, Dept Environm Sci, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA.
中文摘要	Current-generation climate models exhibit various errors or biases in both the spatial distribution and intensity of precipitation relative to observations. In this study, empirical orthogonal function analysis is applied to the space-model index domain of precipitation over the Pacific from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations to explore systematic spread of simulated precipitation characteristics across the ensemble. Two significant modes of spread, generically termed principal uncertainty patterns (PUPs), are identified in the December-January-February precipitation climatology: the leading PUP is associated with the meridional width of deep convection, while the second is associated with tradeoffs in precipitation intensity along the South Pacific Convergence Zone, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the spurious Southern Hemisphere ITCZ. An important factor distinguishing PUPs from the analogy to time series analysis is that the modes can reflect either true systematic intermodel variance patterns or internal variability. In order to establish that the PUPS reflect the former, three complementary tests are performed by using preindustrial control simulations: a bootstrap significance test for reproducibility of the intermodel spatial patterns, a check for robustness over very long climatological averages, and a test on the loadings of these patterns relative to interdecadal sampling. Composite analysis based on these PUPs demonstrates physically plausible relationships to CMIP5 ensemble spread in simulated sea surface temperatures (SSTs), circulation, and moisture. Further analysis of atmosphere-only, prescribed SST simulations demonstrates decreased spread in the spatial distribution of precipitation, while substantial spread in intensity remains. Key Points Systematic spread in CMIP5 simulation of Pacific region rainfall is investigated by using empirical mode reduction techniques Two significant modes of model spread are identified for the DJF rainfall climatology These modes are interpreted in terms of spread in simulated patterns of SST and circulation
学科主题	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.scsio.ac.cn/handle/344004/15243]
专题	南海海洋研究所_热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(LTO)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lintner, Benjamin R.,Langenbrunner, Baird,Neelin, J. David,et al. Characterizing CMIP5 model spread in simulated rainfall in the Pacific Intertropical Convergence and South Pacific Convergence Zones[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2016,121(19):11590-11607.
APA	Lintner, Benjamin R..,Langenbrunner, Baird.,Neelin, J. David.,Anderson, Bruce T..,Niznik, Matthew J..,...&Xie, Shang-Ping.(2016).Characterizing CMIP5 model spread in simulated rainfall in the Pacific Intertropical Convergence and South Pacific Convergence Zones.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,121(19),11590-11607.
MLA	Lintner, Benjamin R.,et al."Characterizing CMIP5 model spread in simulated rainfall in the Pacific Intertropical Convergence and South Pacific Convergence Zones".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 121.19(2016):11590-11607.