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	Analysis of Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Pandemic SARS Spread in Mainland China
	Cao C. X.; Chen, W.; Zheng, S.; Zhao, J.; Wang, J. F.; Cao, W. C.
	2016
关键词	acute-respiratory-syndrome bayesian maximum-entropy transmission dynamics hong-kong epidemic outbreak singapore systems soil
英文摘要	Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is one of the most severe emerging infectious diseases of the 21st century so far. SARS caused a pandemic that spread throughout mainland China for 7 months, infecting 5318 persons in 194 administrative regions. Using detailed mainland China epidemiological data, we study spatiotemporal aspects of this person-to-person contagious disease and simulate its spatiotemporal transmission dynamics via the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method. The BME reveals that SARS outbreaks show autocorrelation within certain spatial and temporal distances. We use BME to fit a theoretical covariance model that has a sine hole spatial component and exponential temporal component and obtain the weights of geographical and temporal autocorrelation factors. Using the covariance model, SARS dynamics were estimated and simulated under the most probable conditions. Our study suggests that SARS transmission varies in its epidemiological characteristics and SARS outbreak distributions exhibit palpable clusters on both spatial and temporal scales. In addition, the BME modelling demonstrates that SARS transmission features are affected by spatial heterogeneity, so we analyze potential causes. This may benefit epidemiological control of pandemic infectious diseases.
出处	Biomed Research International
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
ISSN号	2314-6133
内容类型	SCI/SSCI论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/43388]
专题	地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cao C. X.,Chen, W.,Zheng, S.,et al. Analysis of Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Pandemic SARS Spread in Mainland China. 2016.

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