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	Risk and contributing factors of ecosystem shifts over naturally vegetated land under climate change in China
	Yin Y. Y.; Tang, Q. H.; Wang, L. X.; Liu, X. C.
	2016
关键词	environment simulator jules net primary production tibetan plateau model description change impacts carbon-cycle terrestrial co2 sensitivity uncertainties
英文摘要	Identifying the areas at risk of ecosystem transformation and the main contributing factors to the risk is essential to assist ecological adaptation to climate change. We assessed the risk of ecosystem shifts in China using the projections of four global gridded vegetation models (GGVMs) and an aggregate metric. The results show that half of naturally vegetated land surface could be under moderate or severe risk at the end of the 21(st) century under the middle and high emission scenarios. The areas with high risk are the Tibetan Plateau region and an area extended northeastward from the Tibetan Plateau to northeast China. With the three major factors considered, the change in carbon stocks is the main contributing factor to the high risk of ecosystem shifts. The change in carbon fluxes is another important contributing factor under the high emission scenario. The change in water fluxes is a less dominant factor except for the Tibetan Plateau region under the high emission scenario. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the risk assessment, the geographic patterns of the risk are generally consistent across different scenarios. The results could help develop regional strategies for ecosystem conservation to cope with climate change.
出处	Scientific Reports
卷	6
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
ISSN号	2045-2322
内容类型	SCI/SSCI论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/43342]
专题	地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yin Y. Y.,Tang, Q. H.,Wang, L. X.,et al. Risk and contributing factors of ecosystem shifts over naturally vegetated land under climate change in China. 2016.

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