MAGNETIC NONPOTENTIALITY IN PHOTOSPHERIC ACTIVE REGIONS AS A PREDICTOR OF SOLAR FLARES

	MAGNETIC NONPOTENTIALITY IN PHOTOSPHERIC ACTIVE REGIONS AS A PREDICTOR OF SOLAR FLARES
	Yang, Xiao1,2 ; Lin, GangHua1 ; Zhang, HongQi1 ; Mao, XinJie 1,3
刊名	ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL LETTERS
	2013-09-10
卷号	774 期号:2
关键词	methods: statistical Sun: activity Sun: flares Sun: photosphere
英文摘要	Based on several magnetic nonpotentiality parameters obtained from the vector photospheric active region magnetograms obtained with the Solar Magnetic Field Telescope at the Huairou Solar Observing Station over two solar cycles, a machine learning model has been constructed to predict the occurrence of flares in the corresponding active region within a certain time window. The Support Vector Classifier, a widely used general classifier, is applied to build and test the prediction models. Several classical verification measures are adopted to assess the quality of the predictions. We investigate different flare levels within various time windows, and thus it is possible to estimate the rough classes and erupting times of flares for particular active regions. Several combinations of predictors have been tested in the experiments. The True Skill Statistics are higher than 0.36 in 97% of cases and the Heidke Skill Scores range from 0.23 to 0.48. The predictors derived from longitudinal magnetic fields do perform well, however, they are less sensitive in predicting large flares. Employing the nonpotentiality predictors from vector fields improves the performance of predicting large flares of magnitude >= M5.0 and >= X1.0.
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000324307900012
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.bao.ac.cn/handle/114a11/5819]
专题	国家天文台_太阳物理研究部
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Astron Observ, Key Lab Solar Act, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Grad Univ, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Beijing Normal Univ, Dept Astron, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang, Xiao,Lin, GangHua,Zhang, HongQi,et al. MAGNETIC NONPOTENTIALITY IN PHOTOSPHERIC ACTIVE REGIONS AS A PREDICTOR OF SOLAR FLARES[J]. ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL LETTERS,2013,774(2).
APA	Yang, Xiao,Lin, GangHua,Zhang, HongQi,&Mao, XinJie.(2013).MAGNETIC NONPOTENTIALITY IN PHOTOSPHERIC ACTIVE REGIONS AS A PREDICTOR OF SOLAR FLARES.ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL LETTERS,774(2).
MLA	Yang, Xiao,et al."MAGNETIC NONPOTENTIALITY IN PHOTOSPHERIC ACTIVE REGIONS AS A PREDICTOR OF SOLAR FLARES".ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL LETTERS 774.2(2013).