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题名	随机理论在大容量并网光伏发电系统规划与分析中的应用研究; 随机理论在大容量并网光伏发电系统规划与分析中的应用研究
作者	1王一波,电工研究所
学位类别	博士
答辩日期	2009-01-05
授予单位	中国科学院电工研究所
导师	1许洪华,电工研究所
关键词	并网光伏发电系统,优化设计,极限容量,数学模型,太阳辐射,随机模型,时间序列分析,随机理论,数学规划 Photovoltaic generation system, optimization design, capacity limit, mathematic model, solar irradiance, stochastic model, time-seris analysis, stochastic theory, mathematic planning theory
其他题名	随机理论在大容量并网光伏发电系统规划与分析中的应用研究
中文摘要	光伏发电具有随机波动性与不可调度性，大容量并网光伏电站对电网安全稳定运行的影响不容忽略，并网光伏发电系统的分析与规划应当充分考虑太阳辐射随机特性、光伏发电系统形式以及对电网安全稳定性影响。本文以科技部863课题、中科院知识创新工程项目和中科院西部行动计划项目为依托，深入研究了大容量并网光伏发电系统的规划与分析问题，结合时间序列分析、随机模拟技术、随机规划等随机理论与方法，重点研究了短时间尺度太阳辐射特性与模型、并网光伏发电系统数学模型、光伏发电系统优化设计以及大型并网光伏电站极限容量计算等问题，主要完成以下工作： （1）研究了短时间尺度太阳辐射的时间序列模型，提出短时间尺度太阳辐射时间序列模型的建模、模拟与预测方法，并为西藏羊八井地表水平面太阳辐射建立了4种时间尺度的ARMA模型，验证了ARMA模型能够准确反映存在于短时间尺度太阳辐射数据中的相关性； （2）提出考虑跟踪闭锁角与步进跟踪方式的自动跟踪式光伏阵列模型，并验证了模型的准确性，仿真研究了跟踪式光伏阵列运行特性以及跟踪闭锁现象和步进跟踪对光伏阵列运行特性的影响；提出并网光伏发电系统整体模型，并验证了模型的准确性，仿真研究了太阳辐射与并网点电压对并网光伏发电系统性能的影响； （3）提出基于随机期望值模型的并网光伏发电系统随机优化设计方法，实现了蒙特卡罗模拟与遗传算法相结合的混合算法等多种计算方法，结合光伏阵列最佳安装角和光伏发电系统最佳光/逆比问题进行了算法应用与验证，仿真研究了不同气候不同纬度地区的固定式光伏阵列最佳安装角，分析了光/逆比与逆变器长期运行效率之间的关系； （4）研究了满足电网正常安全运行约束及其合格率要求的并网光伏电站极限容量机会约束规划方法，提出基于两类约束的分步机会约束规划模型，并实现了多种混合算法，在IEEE 30系统上进行了算法应用与验证，分析了不同跟踪形式、不同设计方案以及不同现场地表太阳辐射条件对并网光伏电站极限容量的影响，分析了电网稳态频率和电网电压幅值约束以及合格率要求的影响，并分析了光伏电站分散接入电网的极限容量与最佳接入方案问题； （5）应用本文方法对光伏电站接入藏中电网的极限容量进行了计算和分析，分析了综合考虑多种运行方式后的光伏电站极限容量，并进行了暂态稳定性检验，继而分析了采取改善光伏电站接入条件、光伏电站分散接入电网以及提高系统调频能力等措施对光伏电站极限容量的影响。光伏电站接入实际电网的极限容量计算与分析在国内尚属首次，同时也表明了随机方法在解决实际并网光伏电站规划问题中的有效性。 Photovoltaic (PV) generation has random fluctuating and non-scheduling nature, and the impacts of large-scale (LS) grid-connected (GC) PV power station on power grid security and stability can not be ignored. Therefore, planning and analysis of LSGCPV system should fully consider these factors, including irradiance’s stochastic characteristics, form of PV power system and influence of grid security and stability. This dissertation is based on the 863 project of Ministry of Science and Technology, the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Knowledge Innovation Project and the CAS western action plan project, and studies on planning and analysis of LSGCPV system, and studies on planning and analysis of LSGCPV system. Researches are focused on short-term solar irradiance characteristics and modeling, mathematical model of GCPV generation system, optimal design of GCPV generation system and LSGCPV power station’s capacity limit calculation, etc. Combining with stochastic simulation technology, stochastic expectation-value planning and stochastic chance-constrained planning, following researches are finished: (1) Study the time-series model of short-term solar irradiance; establish modeling, simulation and forecasting methods for short-term solar irradiance ARMA model. Develop 4 time-scale ARMA models for Tibet Yangbajing horizontal solar irradiance, and verify that ARMA model can accurately represent the correlation existing in short-term solar irradiance time series. (2) Put forward and verify auto-tracking PV array model considering the tracker locking angle and step-track approach, and study operational characteristics of auto-tracking PV array and influences of tracker locking and step-tracking by simulation. And, put forward and verify a general model of GCPV generation system, analyze influences of solar irradiance and voltage of connecting point on GCPV generation system’s performance. (3) Put forward stochastic optimization design method of GCPV generation system based on the stochastic expectation planning model, and realize several methods including mixed algorithm of Monte Carlo simulation and genetic algorithm. Combining the optimal installed angle of fixed-PV array and the optimal ratio of PV capacity and inverter capacity, these algorithms are applied and validated. Study the optimal installed angle of fixed-PV array in different climate and different latitudes, and analyze relationship between the inverter efficiency and the ratio of PV capacity and inverter capacity. (4) Research on stochastic chance-constraint planning for GCPV power station’s capacity limit satisfying power grid steady-state security requirements and qualified-rating requirements, put forward two-step chance-constraint planning model based on two kinds of constraints, realize several mixed algorithms, and apply and verify these algorithms in IEEE 30 system. Then, analyze the influences of tracking forms, GCPV designs and on-site solar irradiance on GCPV power station’s capacity limit, analyze the influences of power grid frequency and voltage amplitude requirements as well as their qualified-rating requirements, and analyze the influence of GCPV power station being dispersed in power grid. (5) Calculate and analyze the capacity limit of LSGCPV power station connecting in Tibet using methods proposed in this dissertation, analyze the capacity limit of LSGCPV power station considering several power grid operation modes, and verify the transient stability. Then, analyze influences on the capacity limit of several measures, including improving PV power station accessing conditions, dispersing PV power stations in power grid and enhance system frequency regulating ability, etc. It is the first time in China to calculate and analysis the capacity limit of LSGCPV power station connecting into actual power grid, and it also convinces that stochastic methods is available in practical GCPV power station’ planning and analyzing.
语种	中文
公开日期	2010-10-18
页码	160
分类号	TM1;TM921
内容类型	学位论文
源URL	[http://ir.iee.ac.cn/handle/311042/6792]
专题	电工研究所_其他部门_其他部门_博士学位论文
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	1王一波,电工研究所. 随机理论在大容量并网光伏发电系统规划与分析中的应用研究, 随机理论在大容量并网光伏发电系统规划与分析中的应用研究[D]. 中国科学院电工研究所. 2009.

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