| 题名 | 长白山地区近50年气候变化及其预估 |
| 作者 | 王纪军 |
| 学位类别 | 博士 |
| 答辩日期 | 2009-05-18 |
| 授予单位 | 中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所 |
| 授予地点 | 沈阳应用生态研究所 |
| 关键词 | 气候变化 长白山 非对称性 不均匀性 预估 |
| 其他题名 | Climate change during recent 50 years and its projection in Changbai Mountain Region |
| 中文摘要 | 收集长白山地区15个气象站1953-2007年气温、降水、蒸发、日照时数和水汽压观测数据和国家气候中心整理的2001-2099年的 气温、降水预估资料，利用数理统计方法，系统分析长白山地区气候现状、变化及其预估，为气候变化对人类生存环境影响研究并制定适应对策提供依据。主要结论如下： 1.长白山地区气温、降水日数、日照时数和不同界限温度（≥0℃、≥5℃、≥10℃和<0℃）积温均有显著趋势。年极端最低、年平均、平均最高/最低气温和气温日/年较差在1984、1992、1995、1985、1972和1979年发生突变。所有最高/最低气温与日照百分率有显著负相关关系，一定程度是温室效应结果；最高、最低气温变化不同步造成气温日较差和年较差的非对称性。 2.长白山地区生长季节合计降水量和降水强度日际变化较大。降水以7月30日为界，呈现前升后降极显著的线性趋势，且发生均值突变。降水强度以6月27日和9月3日为分界点，分为三个阶段。降水集中度、集中期和集中时段时空非均一性分布明显。 3.在SRES A1B、SRES A2和SRES B1三种情景下年平均气温均为上升趋势，年内变化一致为冬季升温最迅速，夏季则相对缓慢；而年降水强度总体增加，年内变化比较一致：冬季增加最为明显，而夏季变化不大。 4.未来长白山地区各站≥0℃、≥5℃和≥10℃的积温均有不同程度增加，持续时间延长。负积温增加，持续时间缩短，开始日期推迟，而结束时间提前。 |
| 英文摘要 | By use of observations of daily temperature, precipitation, evaporation, sunshine hour and water vapor pressure of 15 weather stations in Changbai Mountain region from 1953 to 2007, and the projections on temperature and precipitation under different scenarios from 2001 to 2099 simulated by regional climate model from National Climate Center, current and future climate change were studied to provide an evidence for the study on the impact of climate change on environment and decision making to adapt climate change. The main conclusions were as follows: 1. Regional-mean temperature, rainy day, sunshine hour, accumulated temperatures (exceeding 0℃, 5℃ and 10℃, respectively) all show distinct linear trends. Annual extreme minimum temperature, annual mean temperature, mean maximum /minimum temperature and diurnal/annual temperature range have an abrupt change, in 1984, 1992, 1995, 1985, 1972, 1979, respectively. There were significant negative correlation between temperature of extreme maximum/minimum, mean maximum/minimum and percentage of sunshine hour, which is the result of the greenhouse effect in some degree. 2. Diurnal variation of total precipitation and precipitation intensity was obvious during the growing season. There existed a demarcation point of 30th, July, before which precipitation shows remarkable increasing trend and after which quite the reverse, furthermore, where the abrupt change also happenes. The precipitation intensity in growing season can be divided into 3 stages by 27th, June and 3rd, September. Spatial-temporal distribution of precipitation concentration degree, point and period are heterogeneous obviously. 3. Under the SRES A1B, SRES A2 and SRES B1 scenarios, the annual average temperature were all likely to increase, however, the increasing trend had an obvious annual variation, which was larger in winter and smaller in summer. The precipitation intensity is also likely to increase in general, however, the increase is most obvious in winter and has few change in summer. 4. Accumulated temperatures (exceeding 0℃, 5℃ and 10℃, respectively) in the region under the SRES A1B, SRES A2 and SRES B1 scenarios all showed significant increasing trends, and its sustained days were likely to increase. The negative accumulated temperature also showed a significant increasing trend, and its sustained days was likely to decrease which is mainly caused by the delayed beginning date and the earlier end date. |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 公开日期 | 2010-12-15 |
| 页码 | 154 |
| 内容类型 | 学位论文 |
| 源URL | [http://210.72.129.5/handle/321005/2359]  |
| 专题 | 沈阳应用生态研究所_沈阳应用生态研究所_学位论文 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 王纪军. 长白山地区近50年气候变化及其预估[D]. 沈阳应用生态研究所. 中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所. 2009. |
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