Improvements of the shock arrival times at the Earth model STOA

	Improvements of the shock arrival times at the Earth model STOA
	Liu, H. -L.; Qin, G.
刊名	JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS
	2015
卷号	120 期号:7 页码:5290-5297
关键词	interplanetary shock arrival times prediction model solar flare
ISSN号	2169-9380
通讯作者	Qin, G (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Space Sci Ctr, State Key Lab Space Weather, Beijing, Peoples R China.
英文摘要	Prediction of the shocks' arrival times (SATs) at the Earth is very important for space weather forecast. There is a well-known SAT model, Shock Time of Arrival (STOA), which is widely used in the space weather forecast. However, the shock transit time from STOA model usually has a relative large error compared to the real measurements. In addition, STOA tends to yield too much yes prediction, which causes a large number of false alarms. Therefore, in this work, we work on the modification of STOA model. First, we give a new method to calculate the shock transit time by modifying the way to use the solar wind speed in STOA model. Second, we develop new criteria for deciding whether the shock will arrive at the Earth with the help of the sunspot numbers and the angle distances of the flare events. It is shown that our work can improve the SATs prediction significantly, especially the prediction of flare events without shocks arriving at the Earth.
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/4589]
专题	国家空间科学中心_空间科学部
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, H. -L.,Qin, G.. Improvements of the shock arrival times at the Earth model STOA[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS,2015,120(7):5290-5297.
APA	Liu, H. -L.,&Qin, G..(2015).Improvements of the shock arrival times at the Earth model STOA.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS,120(7),5290-5297.
MLA	Liu, H. -L.,et al."Improvements of the shock arrival times at the Earth model STOA".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS 120.7(2015):5290-5297.