A Non-Linear Dynamical-Statistical Model for Reconstruction of the Air-Sea Element Fields in the Tropical Pacific Ocean (SCI)

CORC > 寒区旱区环境与工程研究所 > 中科院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所（未分类） > 期刊论文

	A Non-Linear Dynamical-Statistical Model for Reconstruction of the Air-Sea Element Fields in the Tropical Pacific Ocean (SCI)
	Hong M. ; Zhang R. ; Ma C. C. ; Wang D. ; Bai C. Z. ; Min J. Z. ; Chen Y. D.
刊名	Atmosphere-Ocean
	2014
卷号	52 期号:3 页码:256-270
英文摘要	Aiming at tackling the difficulty in establishing a sea surface temperature (SST) dynamical model, this study develops a non-linear dynamical-statistical model of SST fields and their correlative factors based on Genetic Algorithms (GA) and the dynamical system reconstruction idea, which greatly improves the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecast model. Using Hadley SST data, sea surface wind (SSW) and sea level pressure (SLP) data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Environmental Research (NCEP-NCAR), with empirical orthogonal function (EOF) time-space for reconstruction, we carry out numerical integral forecasting experiments for SST, SSW, and SLP fields. By statistical analysis of the forecasting experiments, we find that forecasts for less than 25 months perform better than longer term forecasts. Based on the model, we forecast SST, SSW, and SLP fields in September, October, and November 2014 and predict a weak La Ni a event. This study explores a novel method for the complex atmosphere-ocean system.
收录类别	SCI
公开日期	2015-12-24
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.casnw.net/handle/362004/24972]
专题	寒区旱区环境与工程研究所_中科院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所（未分类）_期刊论文
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hong M.,Zhang R.,Ma C. C.,et al. A Non-Linear Dynamical-Statistical Model for Reconstruction of the Air-Sea Element Fields in the Tropical Pacific Ocean (SCI)[J]. Atmosphere-Ocean,2014,52(3):256-270.
APA	Hong M..,Zhang R..,Ma C. C..,Wang D..,Bai C. Z..,...&Chen Y. D..(2014).A Non-Linear Dynamical-Statistical Model for Reconstruction of the Air-Sea Element Fields in the Tropical Pacific Ocean (SCI).Atmosphere-Ocean,52(3),256-270.
MLA	Hong M.,et al."A Non-Linear Dynamical-Statistical Model for Reconstruction of the Air-Sea Element Fields in the Tropical Pacific Ocean (SCI)".Atmosphere-Ocean 52.3(2014):256-270.